Last week, the news about the growing national economy took most of us by surprise.
With preliminary data from INEGI, a valid indicator of economic activity, the GDP recorded a growth of 3.6% at the end of the first six months of the current year, reaching several quarters with continuous increases.
If we go further in detail, in June, the tertiary or services sector showed more activity by posting a preliminary advance of 4.3%, its best performance since the first month of the year. On the other hand, industrial activities grew by 2.8%.
In the same way, private consumption has been a stronghold for this economy, showing high growth rates of 4%. Much of this is explained by low unemployment levels and recorded remittances. In May we received over 5.5 billion dollars, the highest figure ever recorded by the Bank of Mexico. All of this was crowned by a fall in inflationary pressures, which are expected to continue to decline for the rest of the year, albeit at a slower pace.
Among other factors, we can mainly see two problems of this surprise. First, relocation of companies in our country. Famous nearbyIt represents the outsourcing of services or manufacturing to geographically close suppliers, with proximity to the US and Canada positioning our country as a major attraction.
Tesla, the automobile company, showed us the best opportunity available in the coming years. Some data: The United States is the largest importer in the world at $3.3 billion, of which, at the end of last year, Mexico represented 14%, according to the study. Close data monitoring. In the next few years, thanks to this boost, it is expected to reach 20%, migrating from the Asian giant China and Canada.
The arrival of the electric car manufacturer is a good opportunity for small and medium-sized Mexican companies. Mexico has a well-established automotive manufacturing and supply chain. It is estimated that Tesla alone can sell 500 million dollars to companies that provide goods and services in our country.
Hand in hand, there goes the famous multiplier effect, which creates greater demand for housing, services and workers.
Second, a takeaway from the above is that our neighbors to the north are less likely to fall into recession. In the second quarter of the year, the Joe Biden-led economy defied pessimistic forecasts by recording the fastest growth.
The Commerce Department said the 12-month expansion of gross domestic product was 2.4% year-on-year. The economy is mainly driven by consumer spending and increased investment. As the Federal Reserve continues to raise its benchmark rate in an effort to curb inflation, most experts are predicting a drop in it.
However, there are analysts who believe that a slight slowdown may occur in the second half of the year. As inflation eases, this outlook appears to be diminishing based on data from a strong labor market, low unemployment and sustained housing costs. We will see.
If we can set aside non-partisan programs and combine these favorable external shocks with efficient government spending that actually boosted the country’s output, we can see a situation that has not been seen in the last 40 years.
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Inflation continues to decline in our country. In July, inflation maintained its downward trajectory at 4.79% year-on-year. This represents the lowest level since March 2021. A pause in Bank of Mexico’s bullish cycle will be something we will observe until the end of the current year.
@GmrMunoz
