Argentina | Javier Miele | Brazil | Jair Bolsonaro | A disgrace to Mercosur? the world

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Meera: “Months of turmoil await” Bolivia: How the fight between Evo Morales and Luis Arce threatens the country’s future

Days after this snub toward Mercosur, Milei described his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, as “Corrupt file“y”Communist”. The harsh terms are a response to the left-wing ruler’s demand for an apology from the libertarian leader.With Brazil and me” to other high-profile reviews revealed months ago.

We cannot ignore the diplomatic crisis that Argentina and Bolivia face after Miley describes it.Fraud” coup attempt condemned by President Louis Arce.

According to the attorney, Miley did not have “No problem“To agree with a representative”There may be a distance, ideology, concept. We were never going to leave because of that issue.”.

For Alejandro Frenkel, Doctor of Social Sciences and Professor of International Relations at the National University of San Martin (Argentina), it is ““wrong decision” This also results “Contrary to the traditional Argentine policy of integration with the countries of the region and assuming an important role within Mercosur”, explains Trade.

In the past few weeks, Miley has lashed out at her Brazilian representative, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who apologized to her for holding a potential meeting.

In the past few weeks, Miley has lashed out at her Brazilian representative, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who apologized to her for holding a potential meeting.

/ PATRICIA DE MELO MORERA JUAN MAPROMATA

– Deputy Government Diplomacy –

On the other hand, it was a decision consistent with Miley’s foreign policy, which did not emphasize the region. The proof of this is that Millay has not made an official visit to any country in this part of the continent, Argentina did not participate in the last SELAC summit, and now it does not participate in Mercosur and proposes to remove it, it said. Does not support Brazil’s plan to reform Unasur. There are several indicators that show the Miley government does not own the regionFrenkel warns.

In fact, since Miley became Argentina’s president in December 2023, he has made eight foreign trips, none of them to the Latin American country, except for El Salvador. Also, his visits to his favorite destinations, the US and Europe, are mainly focused on participating in religious events or receiving decorations from far-right groups.

For Frenkel, this particular way of using foreign relations deserves a special classification. “I call it paragovernmental diplomacy.“, dice.

We see a president who conducts diplomacy as if a head of state does not exist. This has a lot to do with the libertarian ideology that Miley maintains, a man who distrusts the state and says his mission is to destroy it. Thus, there is a tension between the image of the state as a criminal entity, but at the same time occupying a position inseparable from its state character. This paradoxical duality leads us to a behavior that I have not seen, at least in other leaders.”, explains the expert.

During her visit to Spain, Mili wanted to participate in an event organized by the right-wing group Vox, from where she received tough qualifications against the head of state, Pedro Sánchez.

During her visit to Spain, Mili wanted to participate in an event organized by the right-wing group Vox, from where she received tough qualifications against the head of state, Pedro Sánchez.

/ Bloomberg

– Possible Consequences –

Brazil and Chile are two of the five main destinations for Argentine exports, and in general, Latin America is a major commercial hub for Argentine industries. For this reason, Frenkel fears that this indifferent policy towards his neighbors will cost his country’s economy.

Latin America is not only the region with the most political ties to Argentina, but also an important destination for our industrial exports. We export agricultural products to China and other countries in Asia, but the largest exporters of value-added products are Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Chile. Having a policy of indifference towards the region will have negative consequences in economic and commercial matters.”, he warns.

In the specific case of Brazil, which is estimated to account for 14.3% of Argentina’s exports, this is not the first time that the two countries have faced a tense moment and, according to experts, there is a way to overcome it. According to La Nación newspaper, citing sources at Planaldo Palace who consider Miley to be the right way despite Lula’s special discomfort, “Almost out of bounds”.

For Brazil, Lula is re-enacting the policy of strategic patience under more extreme conditions.Frenkel says.

First it happened during the Dilma and Cristina eras, when Brazil maintained a prudent policy of avoiding conflict with Argentina. The main difference is that Cristina then had no intention of confronting the Brazilian government, but rather the situation strained relations. I believe Lula is responding appropriately to Mili’s accusations, but his policy will be to confront Argentina openly. But that does not necessarily require them to maintain the principle of co-operation in all aspects.”, explains the researcher.

Interview

Santiago Rodríguez Rey, Argentine political analyst

What do you think is the real reason for this hatred of Mercosur?

It’s definitely a minor point and I’m assuming Miley doesn’t want to cross paths with Lula or Arce especially after going through what happened in Bolivia. He ignores the crowd, he downplays the importance of Mercosur.

How did this feud between Miley and Lula develop?

Miley has maintained close ties to the Bolsonaro family for years. There are many in Argentina who have been persecuted by Brazilian justice since the attack on the presidential palace in Brasilia a year and a half ago. This is not to say that Argentina’s justice system is not cooperating with them because it is still within the time frame, but it is moving along those lines. Milei is trying to establish a kind of universal dichotomy, the same reaction he had with Pedro Sánchez in Spain.

However, Brazil and Mercosur are more important partners for Argentina than Spain or Bolivia.

Not in principle, but the reality is that Mercosur has been in a tense situation for years. The difference is that until now only a few “minority partners” like Uruguay and Paraguay raised their voice, but Argentina has been a “minority partner” for Brazil at one point. That is Mili’s discourse that Mercosur is a common market that benefits only Brazil. The commercial impact is likely to come mainly in the automotive sector, Lula may re-evaluate some contracts that have a very strong impact on the Argentine industry, as its exports go to the Brazilian market.

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