Bloomberg In this sense, the big players are paying attention to the news, but they are still looking from afar at the opportunity to bet on Argentine assets, five investors and analysts consulted on this note.
In an optimistic conclusion, the idea that any electoral alternatives that attract the largest voter turnout today will return to a conventional economy that promises a future for Argentina’s assets is encouraging.. On the other hand, at a more pessimistic end, this “pro-market” transition is considered difficult to counter, given the legacy the next administration will receive and the social environment it will have to deal with.
In any number of situations, the short period creates panic: the best players abroad share this idea even after a setback. Inflation over 100% per annum And with a 50% devaluation in twelve months, Argentina has yet to face the painful changes needed to stabilize its economy. Correcting imbalances, removing suspicions and cutting costs may plunge the country into a bigger crisis than the current one.
“Argentina has not had a bad experience because it still needs to make adjustments: it has not yet devalued and its policy rate is lower than it should be.Credit Suisse’s Alberto Rojas said.
No one doubts that devaluation will happen official dollar, maybe this year. What some don’t know is whether there will be two devaluations: the first — probably partial — if President Alberto Fernandez is forced to adjust the balance sheet to a lower level of central bank reserves; The second, more concrete, is when a new government takes office and attempts to achieve an exchange rate closer to equilibrium.
Yet key notes from those watching Argentina from abroad assign a high probability of a bond rebound if the government suffers a setback in primary elections. But they doubt it will hold up over time.
A massive transfer
The national government will try to replace the largest amount of administrative pesos this Thursday: 9.5 trillion pesos that expire within the next two months, and it will try to replace new titles in late 2024 and early 2025. Competent instruments are in the hands of public bodies. “We estimate a 70% compliance base, which is slightly below the public domain,” said Matteo Rescini, senior research analyst at Inview.
“Pass Book”
After nine years working in various departments at Moody’s, Florencia Calvente took over as head of research at ConoSur Investments this Monday. Calvende is looking to improve the research area and improve the group’s view of the local market, a company spokesperson said.
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