BCRP: La Niña phenomenon will have a positive impact on the Peruvian economy | Economy


President of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), Julio VelardeScheduled today La Niña phenomenonIt is characterized by the cooling of the surface water of the sea, which can have a positive effect The Peruvian EconomyIncreasing the trade balance of the country.

“There won’t be a strong Niña, but it delays flowering, which postpones the harvest a bit. Generally, La Niña is good for the country, fishing, crops, etc.He said.

“But that could have consequences, delaying the production of some agricultural export products a bit more.” he added.

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This was announced during the presentation of the second inflation report of the year, in which macroeconomic variables of the country and the world are analyzed and projected.

Trade balance

The head of BCRP pointed out that thanks to these high copper prices trade balance Peru will be very positive.

“We estimate the trade surplus for the year to be US$22.6 billion and next year to be a little over US$24 billion.” He pointed out.

“This contrast corresponds above all to traditional products growing strongly in value at 14.6%; we project a slight drop in non-traditional ones. he added.

He also highlighted that Peru is an important exporter in many areas such as Blueberries.

He said last year’s blueberry harvest was low, leading to higher prices and losses for growers.

“Now that blueberry production is going to be pretty steady, prices should come down a bit.”He pointed out.

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“We expect traditional products to grow by 3.7%, with fisheries influencing there, certainly compared to last year’s very low catch”said.

Regarding non-conventional products, he said a slight decline is expected as last year’s climate impacts on production will continue.

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Terms of Exchange

The head of the provider also said that forecasts of the terms of trade (the relationship between export prices and import prices) will improve significantly for the country this year.

“Terms of trade have improved significantly and with oil prices rising sharply in the previous quarter, we expected a slightly negative behavior and now we expect a positive behavior.” He explained.

“Terms of trade are now improving by almost 9%, prices Exports Import prices are adjusted slightly lower, rising a little more than 8%. he added.

Likewise, he indicated that a 1.4% exchange rate recovery is expected by 2025.


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