Chilean scientists warn of a possible major earthquake in the country: what effects will it have on Peru?

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Chilean scientists warn of a possible major earthquake in the country: what effects will it have on Peru?
Chilean scientists are expecting an earthquake in the north of Chile.

Since June 30, a series of low-magnitude earthquakes have been reported in northern Chile, a phenomenon experts have dubbed a “seismic swarm.” He National Seismological Center (CSN) Chile reported earthquakes ranging from 2.7 to 3.8 on the Richter scale. Tarapaka areaEspecially in the area Mina Kolahuasi. These phenomena have been felt in the city of Antofagasta and elsewhere Socaire, Sierra Gorda, Pica and Ollagüe.

A geologist Catholic UniversityPablo Salucci explained to the Chilean media Third These earthquakes are the result of the internal movement of the South American plate, with the pressure of the Nazca plate at greater depth. According to academics, there has been no significant rupture in the region for more than a century, which increases the probability of a large interplate-type earthquake, which could also trigger a tsunami.

Salusi underscored the increased vulnerability due to increased use of coastal areas in affected areas, where more people are exposed in the event of an earthquake or tsunami. The academic asserted, “A large-scale event is planned, which may be more than one scale 8,8″, despite the 2014 earthquake ChileIt did not meet expectations by releasing only a fraction of the expected energy.

In conversation with InfobayHernando Tavera, Executive Chairman Institute of Geophysics of Peru (IGP) He noted that there is no conclusive evidence that a series of earthquakes, such as the one recorded in Chile, is a predictor of future major earthquakes.

He said there have been cases where large seismic events have occurred after several smaller earthquakes. “It’s not a rule”.

“There is an area of ​​concentrated energy that releases energy quickly and in small events, but that is not necessarily a sign that there will be a large-scale event,” the expert pointed out.

On the other hand, I would clarify that even if there is an earthquake today Northern Chile and Southern Peru As a recurring theme these days due to the recent magnitude 7 earthquake in Arequipa, this area does not constitute a special zone in terms of earthquakes, as these occur along the entire western edge of South America due to the Nazca plate.

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“The entire western edge of South America is a dynamic active zone. The Nazca Plate, which collides off the coast of Peru, also collides off the coast of Colombia, Ecuador and Chile,” he noted.

Tavera pointed out Energy output Only within the fault-generating zone of the previous earthquake reduces the likelihood of a major earthquake, but this area is only significantly wider if the magnitude of the earthquake is greater than 7 degrees.

“The area grows logarithmically: an earthquake of magnitude 5 (only) breaks areas with a diameter of millimeters, and an earthquake of magnitude 8, in Pisco (breaks areas) 270 kilometers long. The 2001 Arequipa earthquake, almost 300 kilometers long,” he noted.

Therefore, the IGP The 2007 Pisco earthquake, magnitude 8, “apparently”, assumes that 25% of the concentrated energy would have been released in an area prone to a major earthquake like the one expected off the coast of Lima. 8.8.

Finally, the Executive Chairman of the IGP recalled that no one can accurately predict the place and date of an earthquake, but we know that it can happen at any time, so we must be prepared.

“What science does is predict. We know this at the beach Lima It has accumulated energy since 1746 and could cause an 8.8 earthquake. when We don’t know. But since we are a seismically active country, it can happen anytime. “You have to prepare,” he warned.

According to the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), this Sunday, July 7, a 4.2 earthquake occurred in the area of ​​Arequipa, southwest of Sala in the province of Caraveli.

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