The Colombian American Chamber, AmCham, released this week its first report of the year, entitled “2024: Year of Complexity,” which takes into account the economy and the challenges facing the country. Points to work on to overcome the recession already experienced.
According to this report by AmCham Colombia, the creation of public-private alliances is an urgent need, given factors such as the decline in investment and the importance of strengthening business confidence. Attract new capital from abroad to help increase production.
It also makes it clear that 2024 will be a complex year in different scenarios both economically, politically, socially and commercially; To strengthen the country's image and end months of uncertainty, it must be deployed and managed with prudence and balance.
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María Claudia Lacouture, president of AmCham ColombiaThe country “is moving towards a panorama that we have not seen for many years, but that, more than ever, requires a process of permanent consultation between the public and private sectors, setting aside ideologies and leading as priorities. , the well-being of Colombians.
“We have integrated the four main scenarios we face in 2024 from the Colombian American Chamber, AmCham Colombia, and will allow entrepreneurs to make concrete, strategic decisions with long-term reactivation and reliability,” he added. .
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First, they address uncertainty, highlighting it with the implementation of reforms such as labor, health, and pension reforms; Companies' pockets will be affected, care models will be changed, and the future of Colombians will be produced Investors suspend or abandon their decisions Investment and/or expansion in the country.
“Added to the above is the period of economic adjustment after the post-pandemic growth rebound, which will put our feet on the ground in terms of economic growth. National and international analysts estimate growth to be between 1.2% and 1.5% in 2024,” said AmCham's chairman.
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The consumer price index will be another important focus of macroeconomic policy. Although inflation has eased slightly by the end of 2023, the reduction has not been as rapid as many Colombians would like, especially those with limited resources. The persistence of high prices, particularly for food and fuel, Significantly affects daily finances.
“As economic activity continues to weaken, less activity in employment generation is expected. Bank of Republic estimates that the unemployment rate will rise to 10.3% in 2024. This challenging labor outlook adds pressure to the general economic environment,” the report added.
53% of unemployment withdrawals in Colombia are earmarked for home purchases and improvements.
Third, he says, business management is affected by two factors: roadblocks and rising costs Sooner or later they will be replaced by the value users pay for the goods.
“On the other hand, massacres are increasing in different parts of the country and kidnappings for the purpose of extortion are increasing, which are the subject of dispute at the dialogue table between the government and the ELN,” said Lacouture.
Finally, it is worth noting that the cost of money will remain high at least through the first half of 2024. Analysts expect the Bank of the Republic to cut interest rates only from the second quarter of next year.. These high rates have been implemented as a means of controlling spending and inflation.