:quality(85)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/UGZT3IVUOFCWZBPXEYFWZLWTEE.jpg "Economic transition: Fiscal reform talks sought by the new government on the 2024 budget have been delayed.")
In slow motion, The Economic change New meetings between the outgoing officials of the Ministry of Economy and the incoming ones from December 10 will continue in the coming days, but it is still blind spot It is decisive for the management of the next government’s economic policy: a deal for a project Budget 2024 reflects that Financial adjustment what Javier Miley He wants to motor in his first year in office.
One of the ideas the president-elect has whitewashed is that in 2024 he will try to promote a plan that amounts to budget reform. 5 points in GDP, General accounts can be left out Principal and financial balanceThat is, even when considering a loan interest paying account.
In the Ministry of Economy or in the positions of the new government or in the House of Representatives, the next year’s income and expenditure plan was presented in mid-September, and at this point they are not clear. What would be the idea in terms of budget And Miley will come to Casa Rosada with it. The president-elect’s economic team is in training and top sources at the Treasury Palace have been assured Infobay That this process has not yet begun “Budget Change”.
It is not clear what the basis for this idea will be, either in the Ministry of Economy, where next year’s income and expenditure plan was presented in mid-September, or in the ranks of the new government or in the House of Representatives. The upcoming budget for Mile Casa Rosada
At the economy ministry, Millay is expected to appoint his officials from the economic committee to prepare the ground for a transfer of command over treasury and financial affairs, two central issues in the hands of the head of the Treasury Palace, who will be Luis Caputo. One major institution that does not yet have a designated independence reference is the central bank. Demian Reidel, The signee decided to step aside until last Saturday.
Another area defined during the transition will be under his division Agriculture. Unlike other offices connected with real economy like Energy, transport, mining or knowledge economy -It will be part of the Ministry of Infrastructure which will command it Guillermo Ferraro-, will remain in the table of economic institutions.
In all these cases the work of changing the order has already begun. Eduardo Rodriguez Cirillo He was confirmed as the next energy secretary on Tuesday. Chirillo already made his first visit to the Palacio de Hacienda last week Next Monday You will see your partner again Flavia Ryan. The Ministry of Industries also had its own transition process.
Overall, the macroeconomic transition between outgoing and incoming governments will have some safe names on the table. The Deputy Minister of Economy will be on Massa’s board. Gabriel Rubinstein and Treasury Secretary Raul RicoHead of Advisors and led negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, Leonardo Madgur. For Caputo’s part, his team he will step down from has not been announced, but is working with a team that includes a former finance minister and former head of BCRA. Young economists His consulting firm Angar is part of Latin America.
The economy minister met his cabinet in the last few hours to finalize the change. “To initiate exchange in the rest of the economy, the Definition of transition links of the next government,” they noted. It was also announced that “the University of Buenos Aires will audit the administration led by Sergio Massa as head of the Economic Department.”
Madgur, Rubinstein, Rigo, Ryan and the Mines Secretary were also present in the meeting. Fernanda AvilaLegal and administrative, Ricardo Casal; Finance, Eduardo Setti; Industrial and Productivity Development, Jose Ignacio de Mendicuran; Development Planning and Federal Competitiveness, George Nehm; Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, JUAN JOSE PAHILO; trade, Matthias Tombolini; and the knowledge economy, Juan Manuel Seppi.
One of the ideas whitewashed by the president-elect is that in 2024 he will seek to promote a budget adjustment equal to 5 percentage points of GDP, which could leave the public accounts in primary and fiscal balance.
Also Director of INTEC and Secretary of International Economic and Financial Affairs, Marco Lavagna; Director General of Customs, Guillermo Michael; President of AFIP Carlos Castagneto; President of CNV Sebastian Negri; President of Enarsa, Augustine Keres; Chairman of the Central Bank Miguel Bess and one of the Vice-Presidents, Lysander Clery.
The idea of a quick fix in the first year of the 2024 budget appears challenging for the new government. A calculation made by the Director of the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf) Nadine Arcanaras It showed that “The Actual reduction Required Principal Expenditures (to achieve financial balance) is 25%This implies moving to a ratio of 15% of GDP, similar to the size of the national non-financed public sector in 2007. The challenge is big and the new budget law for 2024 All changes should be included “Taxes on both Expenditure and Income.”
The same study estimated what spending could be cut to achieve that shock tax cut and pointed to four areas: Subsidies, Real Direct Investment (Public Works), Transfers to Provinces and Energy Subsidies. If you change all three of those accounts to 0, that 25% adjustment in spending is still not enough. The rest, Iroff speculates, “will have to come from other expenses, including perhaps those of some.” Public institutions”.
