Public institutions and private analysts agree that the Spanish economy will grow by more than 2% this year, which would mean a significant slowdown compared to 2022, but some experts do not rule out the possibility of a recession. A year ago..
The strength of the labor market, recovery in international tourism and growth in European finances will sustain economic growth, which is forecast to recover somewhat throughout the year. Household consumptionAccording to the EFE agency, the contraction was caused by high prices and difficult financial conditions, the result of a progressive rise in interest rates.
Compared to the 2.1% growth estimated by the government, The Bank of Spain raised its forecast to 2.3% Awaiting the carry-over effect of 2022 and greater agility in activity, inflation is forecast to moderate further in this environment, averaging 3.2% for the year due to a sharp slowdown in energy prices.
However, The company sees downside risks to its forecasts More restrictive financial conditions given the uncertainty in gauging the severity of the impact on activity and inflation.
In this regard, the Independent Commission for Fiscal Responsibility (AIREF) warns that growth will moderate in the second half of the year as it considers interest rate increases to be transmitted to the real economy. The impact will be largely transferred to the economic growth of 2024.
AIREF has raised its GDP growth to 2.3% and reduced inflation to 3.7%, a growth pattern shared between domestic and foreign demand, although household consumption remains weak in the face of better evolution of investment in the domestic sector.
Internationally, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has raised the expected growth of the Spanish economy to 2.1%. Protest against the consequences of the war in Ukraine.
By the end of July, the European Commission will also update its forecasts, which expect growth of 1.9% for Spain in 2023 and 1.5% for the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Progress in exports
Funcas expects the largest contribution to growth through foreign demand (exports and imports) due to the dynamism of tourism and the “good standing” of Spanish companies. Against stagnation of private consumption.
The research service estimates that the economy will grow by 2.2% this year and inflation will end at an average rate of 3.9%, and agrees with AIREF that the contractionary impact of monetary policy will be most strongly felt in the second half of the year. , with the expectation that GDP stagnated in the last quarter of the year.
Esade’s Economic Policy Research Center (EsadeEcPol) is somewhat optimistic and calculates that growth will be between 1.9% and 2.1% this year, with signs of a weak second semester and a freeze in private consumption. GDP growth is not so positive.
BBVA Research, very optimistically, assesses the “surprising and positive” evolution of exports Consumption will offset the slowdownAnd it has raised its growth forecast for this year to 2.4%, while calculating that inflation will average 3.4%.
