Most economic forecasts expect a rebound in the first quarter of 2024 | news

Economy and Finance Minister Alex Contreras indicated today that most market forecasts predict a significant rebound in the Peruvian economy in the first quarter of 2024.

At the end of the meeting of the Council of Ministers held at the Government Palace, he highlighted the steps taken to improve the country’s manufacturing activities.

“We are working on a recovery, the Khan Panche Peru program has been criticized, but without Khan Panche Peru we would be talking about a 2% drop,” he said.

“It’s true, it’s a -0.6% drop for the whole year. In 2023, we had a forecast of 1.1% as published by the OECD and as published by other international organizations,” he added.

He said the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) releases the forecast twice a year in August and updates it in April.

“Given the environment, we are going to take stock in January or February, that’s what we are looking at, we have October, November and December left to recover from this situation, which is temporary,” he stressed.

“When we started this administration, inflation was 8.9%, today it is 4.6%. Growth was 1%, it is true, it is negative, but subject to the shocks we have experienced, it is natural to observe such declines, but we will recover,” he said. He promised.

Private investment

On the other hand, the head of the MEF highlighted the progress of private investment despite the results of economic slowdown recorded in recent months.

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“In terms of private investment, there have been no major investment announcements, now more than $12.5 billion. In terms of infrastructure investment, last year, as I said, 50 million was given in public private partnership (PPP), now 1,200 million has been given and we hope to reach 2,000 million on Friday,” he explained.

In that respect, he emphasized, “there are important developments,” which is why most market forecasts expect a significant rebound in 2024, especially in the first quarter.

“As I indicated, this is an administration that looks at the very short term, short term, medium term and long term,” he said.

In that regard, he pointed out that the government is giving importance to the industrialization of the country.

“We have been talking about industrialization for a long time and this administration is doing it by promoting the naval industry,” he said.

“Nobody is talking about Sanke-Kallau port hub and this administration is doing it,” he added.


The head of the MEF reiterated that there are developments and challenges in the Peruvian economy.

“We are going to continue to report transparently, (business) confidence is negative, there is talk of no confidence, if you look at the long-term RBI support indicators, they are in an optimistic range,” he said..

“It is true, the 3-month indicator is in pessimistic range, but it is the highest level since we took office,” he said.

On the other hand, he explained that private investment fell in 2023 because companies had already planned their budgets for 2022.

“Just as we had to start with an already approved budget, companies are also approving their budgets and 2022 is a year of despair, ending with a coup,” he asserted.

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“So, when there are negative shocks it takes time to adapt,” he added.

El Nino phenomenon

On the other hand, the head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) pointed out that the government continues to engage in preparations to face the El Nino phenomenon.

“To date we are approaching a budget of 4.5 billion (Souls) in different interventions. This is important in the face of Nino that we are going to face,” he said.

He also pointed out that the contingent loan was approved to counter the climatic effects of the El Niño event.

“Today, a contingent loan of $300 million has also been approved. It is important that we have the resources to use them to develop certain measures in an emergency situation,” he added.

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Published: 10/23/2023

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