The International Monetary Fund presented its latest forecasts for the global economy on Tuesday in Washington World Economic Outlook (WEO), includes all research sector projections for member countries.
The report says Argentina's GDP will fall by 2.8% And that inflammation Set in 2024 149.4% (Calculation below the survey of market expectations (REM) published by BCRA predicts inflation of 189.4% for this year). As fresh hikes in public service rates are expected, the price hike expected by the Fund is promising, and another devaluation that could accelerate prices cannot be ruled out.
This fund is expected due to the ongoing economic slowdown in the country Unemployment will rise to 8%. Meanwhile, the organization predicts a 5% recovery in the economy by 2025.
The IMF's chief economist, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, said in a press conference published by WEO, “The authorities in Argentina are implementing a very ambitious stabilization program to restore macroeconomic stability.”
According to the fund's economist, “The progress so far has been truly impressive. Officials were able to register a fiscal surplus for the first time in more than a decade. Of course, this will take some time and require strong political enforcement. “A lot more needs to be done, and a lot more needs to be done on a broader scale.” Once again the company celebrates Milei and Caputo's adjustment, but cautions that the adjustment is permanent.
Regarding the pace of the economy and whether it will recover, Gourinjas said, “They are watching this situation closely. Our teams in finance are in close touch with the authorities. But the progress, again, is quite remarkable. Now, whether it's V, U or L, let's admit that we prefer V to U to L.
Economy Minister on Tuesday Luis Caputo, along with Finance Secretary Pablo Quirno and Central Bank President Santiago Pausilli, traveled to the North American capital on Wednesday to participate in the Western Hemisphere spring assembly held each year by the IMF. Argentine representatives plan to meet representatives of the IMF and North American Treasury. Caputo will seek new funds to bolster reserves, but the fund's warnings about the “quality” of the adjustment and political support from opposition parties to push ahead with counter-reforms make it unlikely to approve the new dollars.
Global perspectives
For its part, the organization presented its main feature Global Economic Forecasts. “Global growth, estimated at 3.2% in 2023, is projected to continue in 2024 and 2025,” the IMF described, marking a 0.1% improvement from the IMF's forecast in January.
“Global growth was 2.3% at the end of 2022, shortly after average headline inflation peaked at 9.4%,” the organization points out. “Most indicators continue to point to a soft landing,” the document added.
The fund highlights that reducing inflation “remains a priority” and warns that “oil prices have risen recently, in part due to geopolitical tensions and services inflation remains stubbornly high”. “New trade restrictions on Chinese exports could also boost product inflation.” The document warns of the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East.
The IMF “projects fewer economic consequences from the crises of the past four years, although estimates vary by country.” “We estimate the greatest impact in low-income developing countries, many of which are still struggling to turn the page on pandemic crises and rising costs of living,” the agency added.
The Fund's recipe is repeated, suggesting that countries move forward with fiscal adjustment to guarantee debt sustainability. Adjustment falls on the working class.
