According to the assessments conducted Ministry of Economy and various institutions at the national and international level, the Peruvian economy is expected to experience growth of less than 2% in the year 2023. This modest performance stems from the decline in production recorded in the first months of the year; Between January and May, the economy contracted by 0.49%, affected by social conflicts and climate events.
Among the most affected sectors, fisheries and agriculture stand out, whose challenges have had a negative impact on export numbers. However, which economic sectors show the potential to increase GDP growth (PPI) during the rest of the year?
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Rafael Zachnich, manager of economic studies at Comex Peru, recommended relying on extractive industries such as mining to prevent further declines in national output. “Mining has had a very positive effect in these months, reversing the result we have now,” he told RPP recently.
Even the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) indicates that mining activity is growing by more than 7% for the first five months of the year.
According to the Peruvian Institute of Economy (IPE), consumption-related sectors are driving economic growth, driven by an increase in the purchasing power of Peruvians. This is expected amid the prospect of a slowdown in inflation, which is expected to reach a rate of 4% by the end of 2023.
The IPE also points out that there are some factors that could allow economic growth to accelerate over the next year. “For example, the recovery in consumption and investment in the private sector will be driven by less restrictive fiscal conditions, given the continued decline in inflation towards the BCRP’s target range, against a backdrop of low interest rates,” they note.
On the other hand, experts point out that public policies are needed to encourage the recovery of the economy to reverse the negative statistics.