What will the economy look like in 2025? – Finance

What will be the performance of the Mexican economy in 2025?

It looks like it There is more, and many things can happen along the way.. Elections are still pending in Mexico and the United States, and we will have to watch what monetary policy decisions will be and their effects on business and manufacturing activity.

Actually, today The Governing Body of the Bank of Mexico He will definitely announce his decision to leave Without change in interest rate.

But to look to the future, the tone of the statement released will be appropriate.

The Central Reserve He will announce his next decision on that day June 12, 10 days after the election in Mexico. The consensus now is that there will be no further change.

Changes are expected for the second semester.

The most recent Citibanamex survey shows that a majority of experts rate it Next low Rates will be incurred and reported in Mexico On June 27, But some are pointing out that this will happen by August or September.

In other words, it is possible that we will end the year with relatively high real rates in Mexico.

With this and other factors, the consensus of analysts is that by 2025, the Mexican economy 1.8 percent growth.

However, Citibanamex shows a significant spread in the most recent opinion polls among experts.

He More pessimism Among the respondents is Bank of America, Only with estimated growth 1.0 percent And a very hopeful one vector group, A pointer to that 3.2 percent.

Between authorities and international organizations, we see Finance Secretary Established in the pre-economic policy benchmark for 2025 2 and 3 percent, This is lower than the 2.5 to 3.5 percent expected this year.

He International Monetary Fund Assesses growth 1.4 percent The rate will be 2.4 percent next year, and then in 2024.

Generally, the economic slowdown is seen in connection with the beginning of a new administration and the fiscal consolidation process planned for the following year.

During the same week, while participating in the national meeting of BBVA regional directors, the Treasury Secretary said that he does not think there will be any impact on overall demand due to fiscal consolidation. It is only a “normalization” of public expenditure. After the extraordinary growth it received this year, due to the conclusion of mega projects and the expiry of the six-year deadline.

As I have already mentioned in this same place, when one observes the expected figures due to dependence on preconditions, the reduction in public deficit cannot be explained by lower investment alone.

Further Cuts in operating expenses are being considered, Otherwise, the broad deficit will not be reduced from 5.9 to 3 percent.

Under that premise, it is possible A negative impact on aggregate demand in the economy is inevitable, This is partly responsible for lower growth next year.

This scenario does not consider the potential negative impact of Trump’s return to the White House and the risk he may bring with him a protectionist impulse.

Of course there is Positive impact nearby It can increase private investment as it already exists.

But that’s the lesson from last year and these months That process will be slow. It is less clear that it will compensate for the other negative factors we have listed than many of us think.

As they say, although the medium term is promising for the Mexican economy, the next year and a half will be complicated for an important part of our manufacturing sector.