With an eye on the real economy, the market is looking for more signals to drop stocks and IMF tensions

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With an eye on the real economy, the market is looking for more signals to drop stocks and IMF tensions
Economy Minister Luis Caputo. (Gustavo Cavotti)

It is difficult to identify whether the respite experienced by the market yesterday is the starting point of a return to a more stable climate or, on the contrary, a pause in the demonstrations of market discontent.

What is certain is that after two days of fearful reaction to the announcement of the monetary policy change, the market is starting to digest it. Stocks cannot be raised immediately -Last Friday’s much-anticipated announcement- With the contribution of new funds from the Express Agreement with the Monetary Fund, the path to rebuilding reserves now has a very different pace than that recorded in the first months of the year.

The variables most relevant to this reality, which is almost 1,000 basis points lower than a year ago, but 400 higher than two months ago (yesterday it closed just above 1,500), is now worth noting where the market is and its projection towards Argentine assets. Putting brands to define.

It is clear that external factors also play a role: when a positive climate like the one recorded at the beginning of the year increases further Volatility increased in emerging marketsAs has erupted in recent weeks, particularly after the election in Mexico, it complicates prospects for progress.

However, there are clearDrivers” complex that will determine investor sentiment in the coming weeks. Even some of them, till now, off the mainstream radar, now, second semester starts, they start joining.

One of those elements, one of the big foreign banks currently in talks with the central bank, has vowed to fully bypass the financial crisis by shifting the vaults to new monetary regulation bills. “From now on The real economy begins to suffer“Investors will focus on the evolution of the operation and its recovery potential,” said a representative of the firm, which regularly receives investment funds, and which comes in periodically to monitor progress. At least for now, the news isn’t good on that front. Isolated but representative data from key sectors such as construction and the auto industry in June broke the trend of a modest recovery seen in the previous two months. How the second semester begins for real economics will be key to screening a movie.

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The other two determining variables of market sentiment are more general and completely interrelated. After the last release Staff report It became clear how difficult the negotiations between the fund’s economic team and IMF technical experts were. For the market, a new agreement with the fund is essential, because in this plan, it is assumed that the raising of shares will take an important place, and eventually, the company will have to provide additional new funds. “Negotiations with the fund and signals from the government as measures to raise stocks are two other things that will dominate market sentiment,” the bank analyst said.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo took a step in that direction yesterday, albeit perhaps somewhat narrowly. Off the agenda, the officer was sent to Congress Progress of Budget 2025 In this, it confirmed the devaluation rate and fiscal surplus till the end of the year and reaffirmed the result of PAIS tax for the next year as stated in the tax law. The takeaway for investors is that there will be no exchange control next year, at least not as we know it.

That is the assumption recently published by JP Morgan, the major US investment bank. “Beyond the list of required conditions, the BCRA focuses on an abstract metric: the ratio of payday loans in local currency to net reserves, or the so-called ‘crisis ratio.'” The North American Institute predicts that.

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