Eight cities where prices are rising less than the country: Why is that? | Consumer Price Index | CPI | Metropolitan Lima | INEI | BCR | economy

In this context, Eight cities have already registered an increase of less than 6% in CPI. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics, lower than that recorded nationally and in Metropolitan Lima (6.46%). (here). This is remarkable when one considers that prices in only two cities rose by less than 6% in May. What is expected next?

read more: INEI: Prices fell in June after 26 months of increases in metropolitan Lima.

Cities with low inflation

Eight cities showed less than 6% CPI variation. These cities are: Bugalba (4.89%), iquitos (5.02%), Huancayo (5.54%), moyobamba (5.65%), huancavelica (5.73%), Porto Maldonado (5.74%), Ayakucho (5.75%) Y Cuzco (5.91%)

to Juan Carlos Odar, Director of Construction ConsultantsThere was less growth in the forest, mainly due to a default in fuel prices.

“In the case of Iquitos (prices) went up very quickly, but now because of the correction in the price of fuels it is going down. Also, the cost of transportation to the city is moderate. Huancayo has a positive theme because it is not exposed to extreme climatic anomalies.”, is mentioned Management.

As for Cusco, which recorded a double-digit increase in the CPI-annual rate in the first months of the year, the economist noted that the gradual recovery of trade and the flow of tourists are the factors that are driving down prices.

He stressed that the upward trend in these cities will continue in the coming months. “By the end of the year, it is more likely to converge 3% faster than other places like Lima.“, he added.

read more: Food hike cut in June: What to expect for the rest of 2023?

Monthly appearance

Alfredo ThorneFormer Minister of Economy and Finance, pointed out There is a monthly reversal of inflation It was provided by yaku and rain.

He explained with data from INEI that in June 2023, consumer prices presented negative variations in 22 of the 26 cities where the Consumer Price Index was calculated, the four lowest of which were Piura (-0.88%) Bucalpa (-0.75%), Simpot (-0.60%), and Ica. (-0.51%).

Director of Thorne & Associates, Huancavelica (-0.45%), Puerto Maldonado (-0.36%), Puno (-0.35%), Cerro de Pasco (-0.34%), Abancay (-0.34%), noted a decline in CPI. -0.28 %), Ayacucho (-0.26%), Huánuco (-0.25%), Iquitos (-0.21%) and Cajamarca (-0.19%).

“They were the worst-affected cities when the protests took place from January to April, so as supply stabilized, prices returned to normal, i.e. falling.“, under control.

In contrast, monthly price increases occurred in four cities: Arequipa (0.19%), Tampicés (0.18%), Chiclayo (0.12%) and Tarapoto (0.06%).

read more: Inflation will be 3.3% this year and will it finally return to the target range in 2024?

Inflation will continue to decline

The former head of the economy noted that this trend will continue in the coming months, a new low will be reached in July or August, and the increase in CPI will be close to 6%.

In general, according to his estimates, inflation will be 4.4% this year, which is higher than predicted by BCR (3.3%).

“What we usually see is an inversion of supply factors. Now the prices have come down as the supply in the markets has stabilized. There is an international effect, with food prices falling sharply in the United States, especially for raw materials”, he emphasized.

Along these lines, Central Reserve Bank (BCR) economists You can reduce your interest rate by four times till the end of 2023. “We believe it will gradually begin to decline by 0.25% and expect the interest rate to reach 6.75% in 2023 and 5.50% by the end of 2024.”, he insisted.

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