El Nino event begins: what effects this powerful climate event could have on our planet | Peru | the world

This Thursday confirmed what a group of American scientists had been warning for months: El Nino phenomenon It is already affecting the planet.

According to experts, this climate event in the Pacific Ocean Increase global temperatureIt has been growing in recent years as a result of climate change.

WATCH: A powerful El Niño phenomenon is brewing: “Inexplicable” warming of oceans that warns scientists

Their arrival will push the world past the key 1.5C warming milestone, they argue. El Niño is expected to last until the spring of 2024And make next year the hottest year on record.

Scientists explained that when they decide Sea temperature 0.5°C higher per month and when the atmosphere responds to that warming. Those conditions indicating the presence of El Niño were met in May.

“This is a weak signal, but these conditions are beginning to exist, and we believe they will continue to intensify,” DNOAA scientist Michelle L’Heureux said. “Our report for last week was actually 0.8 degrees, which is very strong,” he added.

“It’s increasing now and we’ve had signals in our forecasts for months, but in terms of intensity it looks like it’s going to peak later this year,” said Adam Scaife, the UK’s head of long-range forecasting. Meteorological Office.

“A new record in global temperatures is certainly possible next year. It depends on how big El Niño becomes. A full-scale El Niño by the end of this year gives a high probability of a new global temperature record in 2024,” he added.

This is Madness Nature is the most powerful variable in the weather system anywhere on Earth.

WATCH: Global warming to exceed critical threshold of 1.5 ºC by 2027: “First time in history we’ve come this close”

The last El Nino occurred in 2016 and its effects were felt across the globe.

This has contributed to record rising temperatures, loss of tropical forests, coral bleaching, generation of wildfires and polar melting.

Extreme events

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon – not man-made – that has been documented since at least the late 19th century.

“El Niño is a change in the strength and direction of the trade winds that blow from east to west in the Pacific Ocean.This causes the warm water found in the western Pacific Ocean to move towards the central and eastern Pacific,” Angel Adams Coralisa, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wisconsin, explained to BBC Mundo.

This is not a benign change.

The movement of this warm water is positive, the expert pointed out A significant increase in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.

“Higher ocean temperatures are more conducive to heavy rainfall and flooding. That has consequences for the hydrological cycle along the west coast of South America, especially in Peru and Ecuador. There are some direct effects on the atmospheric circulation that cause changes in weather and climate in North America and South America and the rest of the world in general,” he said. He pointed out.

Adams assured that this is cause for concern, especially because A strong El Niño — like the one predicted this year — is often associated with extreme weather events.

“Because El Nino fundamentally changes the weather, we’re talking about the possibility of seeing extreme weather events that don’t normally happen. So we’re seeing unusual things in different regions. That’s a cause for concern,” he says.

This is Weather phenomenon For example, it causes droughts and fires in areas with high rainfall, such as northern Australia; Places such as the west coast of South America, known for their dry climate and deserts, receive heavy rainfall.

“This is the first visible impact of warming off the coast of Peru. If we haven’t broken the record this year, it’s almost over. It’s been very hot, and we’ve seen rain of an intensity and strength that you don’t normally see, and when there’s very high temperatures, it’s massive. Floods, landslides and loss of life and propertyAdams said.

He explained that the development of El Niño, especially if ocean temperatures continue to rise, often leads to a more active hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific.

“The west coast of Mexico is at high risk of hurricanes during El Niño years And to Hawaii. We often see hurricanes or cyclones crossing the ocean, and more intense hurricanes occur in the southern part of the western Pacific Ocean. Conversely, hurricane activity decreases in the Atlantic Ocean,” he said.

Adams pointed out that while it’s something that’s still being researched, there are signs of it El Niño causes drought in the Caribbean during the boreal summerAffects places like Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

“In general, the impacts will be greater for Latin America with heat and drought, but The greatest effects occur on the western slope of the Andes and mountains that dominate Latin America. So we’re talking about Lima and all the big cities along the Pacific coast of South America that get the biggest impacts in terms of rainfall and heat,” Adams pointed out.

Reinforcement of global warming

Although El Niño has a natural origin unrelated to human-caused global warming, it can contribute to an increase in the planet’s temperature.

This climate phenomenon is characterized by the release of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, through which it is distributed.

“El Niño years tend to be warmer than normal, so if we have a record-breaking El Niño this year or if it’s very strong, we’re talking about Significant warming of the atmosphere, which will add to human-caused global warmingAdams warned.

“The second half of this year – and next year – will be a very warm period with many heat waves as we talk about El Niño warming in addition to human-caused warming. So Perhaps 2024 or later this year will be one of the warmest we’ve ever experienced“, he added.