Next year, experts cut growth by two-tenths, to a 1.5% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), two-tenths less than recent forecasts.
Meanwhile, inflation is expected to slow down from 6.9% in 2022 to 5.8% this year and 2.1% in 2024.
“The German economy is coming out of recession very slowly,” Timo Vollmarscher, IFO’s head of economic analysis, says in a report back by Efe. Private consumption will fall by 1.7% this year due to inflation and will grow again by only 2.2% in 2024.
Investments in construction will shrink even faster: after falling 1.8% last year, they will fall 2.2% this year and 3.2% next year, as construction price inflation slows more slowly and interest rates on loans remain high, and demand slows. for services.
Production in the manufacturing sector will continue to grow steadily, but will grow moderately due to a high order book and grow more strongly as disruptions in the supply chain disappear.
The number of unemployed will increase slightly at first, from 2.42 to 2.55 million, and then fall again to 2.45 million next year, which equates to an unemployment rate of 5.3% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024, from 5.3% last year. The number of employed people will increase from 45.57 million this year to 45.95 million in 2024 and 46.07 million in 2024.
Public debt, for its part, will fall from 106,000 million euros in 2022 to 69,000 million this year and 27,000 million next year. On the other hand, the current account surplus abroad will increase significantly, from 145,000 million to 232,000 million euros this year and 269,000 million next year, equal to 6.3% of GDP. European union.
