One of the most famous and effective campaign slogans in US election history was coined by a political strategist. James Carville It helped Bill Clinton On winning the presidency in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” With this disrespectful phrase, Carville This focused voters’ attention on the poor state of the economy, which led them to decide to return the Democrats to power.
There are many in the opposition who want to copy this game plan and attack the party in Mexico Lopez Obrador For his management of the economy, to regain power. In fact, they are already doing it. In my opinion, this is a failed strategy. The economy may not be buoyant, but it is far from a crisis. All indications are that it will remain stable next year unless there is an external shock.
The reality is that many things are going well. The economy will grow at a faster pace this year and is estimated to maintain a good pace in 2024. In fact, our economic performance will be better in a group of 20 people. At the same time, the level of public sector debt seems reasonable at less than 50% of GDP (notably, the OECD average within countries is higher than 80%). Over the six-year period public expenditure remains under relative control and the exchange rate is stable.
There will be a lot of good news at work. For starters, unemployment is at an all-time high. The minimum wage has increased 20% this year, more than inflation, so far in the administration Lopez Obrador, more than doubled. Formal employment has increased recently.
The socio-economic front has also improved. From 2020 to 2022, nearly 9 million Mexicans moved out of poverty. Economic inequality has been reduced in recent years. A good part of the explanation is growing social support. For example, the pension for the elderly is estimated to increase by 25% this year to $4,800 for two months and $6,000 in 2024. Bimonthly pension in 2018 was $1,160.
Other important economic indicators show good performance. Powered by nearby, private investment reached the maximum. Mexico is the Latin American country that received the most tourism investment from 2018 to 2022 and is ranked sixth globally.
Even in areas that present problems like inflation, the trend is positive. From an annual high of 8.7% in September last year, the latest report shows a pronounced slowdown to below 4.5%. All this does not mean that there are no economic problems. Of course there are, and deep ones.
But given the panorama I describe above, it’s hard for the opposition to gain traction with voters with a message of “It’s the economy, stupid.” If I were in your shoes, I’d focus better on offensive ends like poor defensive decisions.