Julio Velarde will join other central bank chiefs at a symposium in the US: what topics will they discuss?

Julio Velarde argues that there is no technological recession in Peru, after GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters. Photo: Andean

Central Reserve Bank of India (BCRP) Chairman Julio Velarde will make the trip this week America To participate in the so-called Economic Policy Seminar Structural changes in the global economy, (Structural changes in the global economy) is in charge of invitation Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, It was issued today, Monday, August 21, by Board Resolution No. 0029-2023-BCRP-N, as stated in the legal regulations. The official newspaper is El Peruano.

According to the legal document, the event will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Next August 24 to 26. Pursuant to the resolution, the president and leaders of the Peruvian sponsoring company will attend. Central banksRepresentatives of multilateral organizations, government agencies, eminent academics and media.

The symposium will serve as a forum for officials to discuss the outlook for the global economy, various policy options and the need for possible structural changes.

According to the above legal provisions, the total cost of the said trip will be 5,819.84 US dollars, which is reflected when broken down. Tickets US$4,059.84 and in daily wage US$1,760.00 import.

This event comes in a context Peru is still facing Inflation higher year-on-year (5.8%) Doubles the target range (3%) established by Central Reserve BankAs well as a fall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In two consecutive quarters, it is called according to experts “Technological Recession”.

The construction sector contracted by 4.12% in June as domestic consumption of cement fell. Photo: Composite Infobae/Andina

At this point, the head of Peru’s Monetary Authority said that despite the contraction in the first half of 2023, the Peruvian economy is “not in a technical recession” because more variables are growing and that merits analysis.

“It is true that we have fallen in two quarters, but some other factors are also not met. Consumption is growing as well as employment, which is why it is difficult to stay in a technological recession,” he said last week during the 2023 Economic Forum organized by the American Chamber of Commerce of Peru (Amsam Peru).

Although formal employment registered a slowdown, “it is growing at a significant rate from 2021 and the opportunity to work is also increasing,” he noted, noting that the percentage of formality in the labor market is increasing. “Employment is still growing, so it’s very difficult to call this a tech recession,” he said.

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Similarly, the head of the publishing company pointed out that the Peruvian economy grew in a nationalized manner in the second quarter of this year.

“Technological recession is a term that is used in the US after studying a lot of variables. It is true that it coincides with two negative quarters, but the second quarter has developed compared to the first quarter,” he pointed out.

Carlos Oliva, former head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), pointed out that “we have a stagnant economy that moves between +1% and -1% growth every 8 or 9 months.”

In addition, according to the forecasts of various analysts and private companies such as the Peruvian Institute of Economy, CreditCorp Capital, the Peruvian economy will register only 1% at the end of the year.

Broadly, projections have been scaled downwards. Macroconsult recently noted that GDP will grow by 0.6%. This is a rate not seen for more than 20 years, and in 2001, the national product recorded a similar value.

Experts like ex-vice president Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Luis Alberto Arias Minaya maintains that even the growth of the Peruvian economy this year will be lower than that recorded in 2009, when the GDP recorded an expansion of 0.9% as a result of the international financial crisis that intensified after the fall of the Bank Investment Company. Lehman Brothers in America. In the previous five years, the average rate of GDP was 7.7%.

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