Peruvian Economy | CCL | Expected Economic Challenges for Peru in 2024 | GDP | Construction | Production | Fishing Private consumption | Private Investment | economy

The The Peruvian Economy 2023 will record one of its worst years, with a drop of 0.5%, mainly due to a sharp decline in the construction and manufacturing sectors affected by political uncertainty and social protests, the Lima Chamber of Commerce indicated.CCL) What is expected in 2024?

In the GDP Review (BPI) from the country, Oscar Chavez, President of CCL's Institute of Economic and Business Development (IEDEP)., since 2013, Peru has not been able to exceed 4% growth, barring a 2021 post-pandemic recovery. In that regard, the administrator emphasized that the potential GDP will improve significantly in the coming years.

He explained that the performance of Few economic sectors have avoided a deep recession this year. Here, mining and hydrocarbons stand out (7.7%), which had a significant improvement after the re-implementation of some large investment projects. They are followed by trade (2.5%) and services (0.3%). But due to adverse weather conditions, agriculture and fisheries sectors recorded negative performance of 2.9% and 16.8% respectively.

read more: Peruvian economy by summer 2024, what BCR projects.

What is expected in 2024?

By 2024, CCL's IEDEP has projected a growth of 2.6% for the country.Most of the sectors will have modest improvement due to economic recovery effect and one event boy Not so strong. He described a 3.8% growth in the manufacturing sector and a 3.6% growth in the construction sector.

Mining and hydrocarbons will reduce their growth to 2.7%, blunting the effect That old one. For trade and service sectors, the expansion will be 3.3% and 2.7% respectively.

read more: Salaries in Peru are low for 2019, and in Chile and Colombia they have already recovered.

Private consumption and investment

On the spending side, they show a rebound in 2024, according to estimates by the trade association. Personal consumption 2.9% and Private investment 1.9%.

Taking into account that the two indicators represent 83% of the GDP, he said, the low stimulus they give to the level of economic activity can be understood. is supportive 3.7% increase in exportsFueled by mining and agricultural activities.

“An end to recession does not necessarily mean recovery or sustained growth. Stopping the recession would prevent business failure, a drop in employment and the real sector from affecting the financial sector and triggering delinquencies in business loans, consumer loans and mortgages.”, emphasized Oscar Chavez.

read more: Private investment is expected to fall 7.3% this year and not pick up in 2024.

Great challenge

Chavez addressed it The main challenge for 2024 is to reactivate the economy, with a GDP growth rate of 3% per annum.A figure that was not reached this year, despite the government's efforts with the Con Punche Perú 1 and 2 programs.

“It is important to note that overcoming this challenge requires not only increasing public spending, but more private investment in an environment with business expectations that should be positive.”, he commented.

insisted that Peru needs an investment shock given that private and public investment has fallen in five of the last ten years.

Likewise, there is an urgent need to take action to reduce poverty in the country, which currently stands at 27.5% and will surely increase by 2023.