The government is beginning to realize that the tailwinds that have driven growth in the past three years will change course in the coming months. The economy is beginning to discount the collateral effects of long-term rising inflation, which could lead to contagion in both GDP growth and job creation, one of the pillars that allowed it. Drivers of activity In recent years, despite the impact of epidemics, first, the war in Ukraine, and then. However, it seems that this slowdown will no longer allow us to overcome the potential imbalances that continue to create sources of geopolitical instability that are now established in the Middle East as well.
With this in mind, on the one hand, in the context of economic cooling, and on the other hand, the executive expects the completion of the labor conflict for next year, precisely fueled by this delayed effect of inflation on wages. In particular, the Ministry of Economy In the 2024 budget proposal, it is signed that salaries will increase three times more than employment, while the total wages of employees – which includes both reassessments and new jobs – is the closest indicator to labor costs. Companies support salary increases. Almost quadruple the next academic year.
In particular, the estimates drawn up by the executive in budget programming sent to Brussels 1.4% employment growth by 20243% in 2021, 3% in 2022, 3% in 2022, 2.3%, 2.9% – 2.9%. In 2023 – according to official estimates of the Cabinet headed by the Executive Vice President of the Government Nadia Calvino For the close of this financial year.
However, in what will be the third year of high inflation since the first blow of the war in Ukraine, which has pushed the CPI into double digits by mid-2022, this slowdown in employment will not be at odds with a new push in wages. And then through rising energy prices. The government has estimated that Salaries will rise by 3.7% in 2024At the same time the Salary The total number of employees – an additional cost to companies – will increase 5.4% In the following year.
Precisely, experts warn about the relevance of this second indicator, among others, the mass increase in wages for employees, the data hides the main component of the increase, the expected increase Quotations -Importantly, on the side of maximum bases, which the government already plans to increase by around 5%, as a result of adding the increase relative to the CPI, it will be 4% and the additional 1.2% used by the planned adaptation path in pensions. reformation.
Executive members such as the Vice President and the Minister of Labor have already indicated that the effect of the eventual increase in the minimum base will be added to the new update of the minimum wage. Yolanda Diaz, both that and CC.OO are among the issues. The UGT has tabled it as part of the agenda for talks it intends to address with the government in the next legislature.
“The growth of the wage bill is predicted as an increase in salaries, but, above all, it is due to an increase in labor costs (social contributions), the economist explains. Javier Santacruz.
Precisely, this salary increase is one of the relevant factors that will create inflation in the coming months. It should be remembered that the International Monetary Fund (FMI) It has recently pledged that our country will be the only Euro major not to reduce inflation below 3% by the end of 2024. Hence, rising prices, along with the CPI, will continue to strain household finances. At 3.4%
Ability to purchase goods
Precisely, based on CPI projections and salary update estimates, workers will be in a chain of two years in a row. Restoring part of the purchasing power Lost in 2022. This year, on average, workers will experience 0.8 percentage points of purchasing power – with an average of 4% inflation expected in 2023 – next year it will be 0.3 percentage points and between 2023 and 2024 these low points of purchasing power recovery will be more than 5% by workers on average last year. The loss of purchasing power did not soften the blow.
If the government’s projections are met, next year will mark the second year in a row in which overall effective increases in wages – beyond those included in collective agreements – exceed the recommendation set by employers and unions in ‘V. An agreement on employment and collective bargaining for the three-year period 2023-2025 was reached last May, in which salary increases of 4% this year were set – according to the economy they will reach 4.8% – and 3% in 2024 – they will be reached. 3.7% according to official projections. In this case, the wage increase of the employees in the next twelve months is a 23% higher than recommended Provided by community agencies
Loss of companies
In the context of a week that gave itself economically with an analysis of the baselines of the next budgets recently sent to Brussels, the PP took advantage of the meeting of finance ministers of the autonomous communities held this Saturday. Focus on the points clouding the dashboard of the national economy. The economic deputy secretary of the party has condemned Juan BravoA review of the Spanish rescue plan, which will raise a total of 93.5 billion euros, means that “Europe is providing more money because Spain is underdeveloped.”
Thus, Europe is going to get more money for Spain, Bravo said, because when reviewing the development of countries, remember that ours is lower than expected and there is a. Fourth charge We’re not asking for “milestones and targets not being met” – it’s worth remembering that one of the things under review is pension reform. As for the European funds, he said, “55 milestones have been modified, expanded or reduced”.
Apart from the questionable performance of the European rescue funds and the need to articulate a strategy to speed up disbursements, popular critics are already analyzing the B-side of the labor reform. In this sense, they warn of the persistently temporary nature of jobs, where eight out of ten are “permanent, intermittent or indefinite, part-time or temporary”. More than 70,000 companies have disappeared Since the Sanchez regime. “It’s 15 fewer companies per hour,” the PP leader lamented in statements to the media.
However, from training in leadership Alberto Nunez Feijo They are happy with the unemployment data because “whenever a job is created it’s good news”, but they describe the slowdown in the economy as a “trend”, where Spain has seen months of consecutive months of low growth in membership.
They also accuse the government of continuing to hide the figures for laid-off permanent employees, which at last stood at 440,000, which were identified in the government’s written parliamentary response but not broken out in the monthly balance sheets it issued. SEPE.