Economy | Don’t Play With El Nino, by Gino Sáenz | Comment

for that economy Peru, 2023 is off to an auspicious start. Into an already complex global environment (high inflation and high interest rates) two events were added at the local level: social protests and a disastrous letter of introduction. El Nino phenomenon, Cyclone Yaku flooded rivers and damaged many infrastructures. This was compounded by the low dynamism of domestic demand. The result? In the first quarter, GDP shrank by 0.4% year-on-year, while it grew by only 0.31% in April.

Precisely, the projections were revised downwards in the last Inflation Report (IR) for June. Among many other factors, the anchovy fishing ban maintenance and the poor number of sectors such as manufacturing or agriculture stand out. Not only that. The World Meteorological Organization estimates a 60% probability boy Global growth at the end of July, 80% at the end of September. What does this mean? economy From the country?

Despite a depressed performance, fishing managed to resist in a certain way: it grew by 22.4% in the first quarter of the year. However, it fell by 2.57% in April. This year’s forecast has been revised down to a 15% drop due to the anchovy fishing ban. What effects does it have? boy In fishing? Precisely, the low presence of the anchovy and possible changes in its reproductive cycle, but the abundance of other species. It could be evaluated to take advantage of the extraordinary biomass present in the Peruvian seas to replace established fishing quotas.

The agriculture sector fell 14.21% in April, the sharpest decline since 1992. Above all, this tragic decline was due to reduced agricultural production. effect boy This will affect the flowering of fruit trees and less planting due to drought; However, it will regenerate dry forests along the northern Peruvian coast.

Half a year is approaching economy Peru’s economic growth has shown worrisome numbers. While various sectors are expected to improve their operations in the second half of 2023, the event boy causing us serious problems economy. Lack of preparation for population in general and lack of policies to cope boy – This happens from time to time – it can be a death blow economy From Peru. We hope we know how to answer.