Expectations in the economy

In a world of instant information, not only market data, but also expectations and thus decisions in the economy, are highly sensitive to announcements by governments from any platform. Hence, the recent news of better employment and inflation figures can have a sustainable trend only if the government moderates its announcements while ensuring concern for the economy.

Recommendations or news affecting one or another sector are considered to measure the environment in the immediate future. As the National Association of Financial Institutions ANIF reports, thinking about the economy as a whole, or putting the economy in balance, is essential to subtracting points from uncertainty.

On the one hand, the presidential speech, which gave hope as the first sign of a downward trend in inflation and employment, is not enough to send expectations to the contrary that could affect the dynamics of certain sectors or variables. Today the financial sector uses the intermediate in a situation of high interest rates, which is precisely the result of the tool used by the Republic Bank to control inflation, and although it seems positive, its role should focus on monitoring its quality. The portfolio, as its asset, has a filter that guarantees repayment of loans in high interest situations.

The decision to cut interest rates is not really up to the sector, nor is the public given the expectation that they will be cut until market conditions allow. The opposite message is the only thing you can do that keeps you unstable.

The results for the first quarter of this year show that growth in sectors such as industry and commerce has been subdued. In turn, the construction sector is facing difficulties in providing low-income housing projects and the tourism sector has been hit by tariffs.

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On the other hand there is employment. Although the unemployment rate has decreased compared to March of the previous year, it is concentrated above all in self-employment, which is associated with the informal, and the prospects for formal employment are not great. A stable job depends on the good performance of the companies.

Therefore, a favorable opinion of the country towards the business sector is increasingly hidden, in this regard the first opinion poll conducted by the Universidad del Rosario with Casa Editorial has just been published. Time and National Advisory Center. 72% of Colombians praised the companies and 86% did not think of creating wealth for the country without business development.

The same thing happens with inflation. The trend merits warnings about the possible consequences of adding, among others, the possible arrival of the phenomenon of the child with drought, the increase in gasoline. These examples point out, once again, that the economy’s potential for growth this year is limited, so caution is appropriate.

* President of the XXI Century Institute of Thought

[email protected]

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