Fishing to recover 30% in 2024 after two negative years | Fisheries Department | Macroconsult | economy

After two years in the red, The Fishing May close 2024 on a positive note. General Manager MacroconsultElmer Cuba estimates that fisheries GDP will rise again by 30% this year due to less impact from climate events.

“He The rebound may be around 30% and from 2022 onwards the sector will not grow as it is poor.. Now a 30% recovery from last year, you're still below pre-pandemic levels” Cuba said during a press conference.

In 2023, the sector recorded its worst moment in 30 years with a 19.75% decline due to the El Nino phenomenon, which warms the ocean and hampers anchovy fishing, a key input for industrial fishing for fish meal and fish oil production.

Likewise, in 2022, the Fishing activity faced a decline of 13.74%. The sector declined that year due to lower landings of marine species for indirect human consumption and industrial use, which rose from 5.1 million tonnes in 2021 to 4 million tonnes that year.

read more: Fishing production begins the year with a downturn, while mining expands

Recovery will not be in all areas

According to Macroconsult, in a presentation of a report prepared for the National Fisheries Society (SNP), there are indications that the reported El Niño event this summer is not of the magnitude expected. However, recovery is mainly fishing in the northern part and not in the south.

“We still have some ocean warming, but not to the extent of last year. Unless there is a significant change, We predict a significant recovery in the Mid-North Zone this year but not in the South Zone as it is under stress. And any recovery will be subpar, but the Mid-North region will have a significant impact” commented Diego Díaz, partner at Macroconsult.

In recent years, the southern region has shown weak production and economic performance, which is why they estimate that they have reflected a loss of USD 1.9 billion over ten years.

According to Elmer Cuban, There is a decline in fishing in the southern region, which has resulted in a loss of 6% of Arequipa's GDP. They warn that this impact is caused not only by climate events, but also by changes made to industrial fishing regulations since 2012.