:quality(85)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/UTXR7HFHLRGPPGK2XAV3ULCSUQ.png "Niño Costero likely to be “strong” in summer 2024: Areas at risk")
As the months go by, new information emerges Consequence What can I have? Beach boy Among many others Regions of Peru. According to the most recent report of the Multisectoral Commission responsible for the National Study of the El Niño phenomenon (Finally), the probabilities increased Weather phenomenon Millions of citizens were hit hard Summer 2024.
Data from this task force varies by week. On September 14 this year, Enphen maintained the probability of an episode of El Niño costero. “Strong” was 25%.
However, more than a month later, a recent report showed the extent of the possibility of this event Strong 49%while with size “Moderate” is 47% For the first quarter of next year.
Official ENFEN report no. As per 17-2023, the ENFEN Multisectoral Commission As a result of the evolution, El Niño Costero is expected to continue until at least the early fall of 2024, maintaining the “El Niño Costero Warning” status. boy It contains Central Pacific.
“According to Enfen’s expert judgement, based on observed data, as well as the forecasts of international climate models available to date, it is highly likely that a strong warm state will continue in the Niño 1+2 region until February. Next summer of 2024, on average, the most probable magnitudes of a coastal El Niño are strong (49% ) and moderate (47%),” the report said.
Areas most affected by coastal El Niño, based on the panorama provided by the Multidisciplinary Commission responsible for the National Study of the El Niño phenomenon Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque, La Libertad and the capital Lima.
The damage caused by this atmospheric phenomenon can be similar to what happened In 2017 with El Niño costeroMiguel Yamasaki Koizumi, head of the Center for Disaster Risk Assessment, Prevention and Reduction (Cenepred), explained.
The expert recalled that in that year, the phenomenon was “moderate” in size and It caused severe damage in various areas. “The El Niño of 2017 caused us a lot of damage, so you have a rough idea of what will happen. In 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, Peru endured very strong El Niño events, so the damage was considerable,” he told Andina Agency.
Among the possible effects on the Peruvian coast, the Finally Under El Nino conditions, it is estimated that higher than normal flows will occur mainly in the northwestern part of the country.
For the southern zone, a scenario of below normal flows is possible Hydrographic area of the Pacific and Titicaca. Precisely, in this lake, in the following weeks and months, we will see a downward trend (in its water level), as well as the flow of the tributaries of the main rivers of this lake exhibiting less than normal behavior.
“The Enphen Multisectoral Commission recommends that decision-makers take into account possible risk scenarios in accordance with the current seasonal forecast and projections for the summer of 2024. The aforementioned study.
Looking at these predictions, a question arises as to whether it is even possible boy Another natural phenomenon may arise, further complicating the new panorama Cyclone Yaku. When asked about this, a spokesperson for Peru’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (Senamhi) replied.
“Yaku storm cannot be predicted months or weeks in advance. It is essentially a phenomenon with very short-lived atmospheric components. That is, a few days in advance or at most a week to indicate whether it is delivered or not,” said Kirinia Avalos. Senamhi Climate ForecastA succeeded.
