The pace, coupled with low inflation, will allow it to reach 3% this year if it can be maintained

In his weekly column Clear Accounts, Mauricio Galindo, economic editor of EL TIEMPO, presents interesting statistics surrounding the news of the past 7 days. In this case, statistics on how the revenue of the state is increasing through taxes, Colombia's export reach dynamics and the role Venezuela will play again on that front, as well as the dynamics of deflation brought about by inflation, among others.

(Also read: More than 3.8 million foreigners to visit Colombia in 2023: This is what the statistics say)

Higher share in state income

The Finance Ministry's famous study on inflation suggests that this explains the lack of participation of profits in income from production.

An analysis by former finance minister Francisco Azuero says that the weight of profits actually fell from 34 to 33%. The weight of indirect taxes (less subsidies) increased, from 19 to 21 percent.

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Exports, towards a 'new normal'

Exports fell 12.9 percent in full 2023, but the reduction was 4.2 percent in December. These data show that these declines are offset by overseas sales.

This way A new stability will be achieved in Colombian sales abroad, around 49,000 million dollars, That's almost 14 percent lower than sales for 2022.

If inflation falls at the same rate as it rises

Inflation has declined for 10 months. After a peak of 13.34 percent in March last year, it was 8.35 percent in January. The pace at which it fell is almost the same as it rose for two years: on average, it has risen 0.49 points every month since April 2022.

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And in the last 10 months it has been decreasing by 0.5 points every month. If this pace is sustained, the 3 percent target will be reached by December. Too optimistic?

Can Venezuela offset its decline?

Last year, exports to Venezuela grew 6.5 percent, while sales to the rest of the world fell 13.2 percent. How much relief did Venezuela provide? Sales to that country, which has been important in the past, are now expected to rise from 1.1 percent in 2022 to 1.4 percent in 2023.

Hence, they gave relief of only 0.07 points out of the total fall. Currently, Venezuela sells for one-tenth of what it did 15 years ago.

Mauricio Galindo

Economics teacher

And X: @galmau

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