Who is Daniel Noboa, what is he proposing and what are the chances of Luisa González winning the runoff election in Ecuador? | Correlationism | Rafael Correa | Guillermo Lasso | October 15 | the world

According to official figures from the National Council of Elections (CNE), GonzalezIt got 33.31% of the votes, against 23.66% of the Citizens’ Revolution. Noboa, Action for National Democracy (ADN). Both They will meet in the second round on October 15.

WATCH: Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa to play second round Oct. 15 in Ecuador

Analyzes in local media focus on the event Noboa and reduced the possibility of a return to power. who is that Why did it go to the second round? What do you propose? What alliances can you form to win the presidency? They are surprised. We will give answers in this note:

Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will meet in the second round on October 15. (Rodrigo Buendía/AFP).

/ Rodrigo Buendia

Businessman and politician

Daniel Nobowa He was born on November 30, 1987 in Guayaquil. He is the son of billionaire businessman Alvaro Novoa, who ran five times for the presidency of Ecuador. His mother Annabella AsinDoctor, Member of Legislative Assembly and Member of Legislative Assembly in the last Constituent Assembly of 2007.

Studied Management in Business from the New York University Stern School of Business and graduated with a degree in public administration Harvard Kennedy School. He also completed a master’s degree in governance and political communication George Washington University.

Ecuador voted on Sunday

A new National Assembly has until 2025 to replace President Guillermo Lasso.

At the age of 18, he founded his own company, DNA Entertainment Group. Several years later he went to work for Corporación Noboa, where he became the youngest ship director in the company’s history.

In the 2021 election, he won a seat in Ecuador’s National Assembly.

What does Daniel Novoa propose?

Ecuador explorers place Daniel Nobowa On the right, he refuses. He promises that his vote will be left and center-left.

His campaign proposal is divided into four axes: social, economic, institutional and productive and environmental. He says his government will aim to keep public accounts in order and appeal for fiscal responsibility.

He believed in free enterprise and social responsibility.

He promised to fight crime and strengthen justice and security systems. In this sense, he proposes a police reform.

It also proposes to hold a popular consultation to introduce reforms in the constitution on matters of justice.

He has promised to reform taxes so that high-income earners pay more.

Besides…

Who is Luisa Gonzalez and what does she propose?

Luisa Gonzalez Born 45 years ago in Quito and a single mother of two daughters.

A Lawyer with a Master’s Degree in International Economics and Development from the Complutense University of Madrid.

During the decade of Rafael Correa’s government (2007-2017) he held various positions in the ministries of production, tourism, foreign relations, general administration secretariat and the presidency.

He has been a Member of Legislative Assembly from May 2021 to May 2023.

He said this during the first round Their main challenges are insecurity, hunger, unemployment and health.

His government plan highlights the achievements of Korea’s Citizens’ Revolutionary Movement during his time in power.

He has promised A strong arm against crime and strengthening of police, armed forces and intelligence agencies.

He promises to fight corruption, especially in the health system. It will provide “massive” loans to indebted households and the agricultural sector and subsidize the cost of fuel.

If you win the election, Rafael Correa will be his advisor. But he clarified: “The decision maker is Luisa Gonzalez, the final decision is mine.”

Rafael Correa cannot return to Ecuador due to an 8-year prison sentence for “Bribery 2012-2016”.

During his tenure in the National Assembly, He opposed the legalization of abortion for rapeIt was decriminalized by the Constitutional Court in 2021.

Who is Luisa Gonzalez and what does she propose?

Why did Noboa go to the second round?

Mauricio Salvador-Alarconsaid a political analyst and executive director of the Citizenship and Development Foundation Trade what Last week’s polls already showed an increase in electoral sentiment NoboaAs a result of his participation in the debate on Sunday 13 August and A non-confrontational campaign, it focused on appealing to a younger audience.

“Many researchers, including myself, saw that there might be options for that Noboa “I was in good shape but not in the second round. I was even told that he would win even if he lost because he wanted to run for the presidency in 2025,” he said.

To the teacher Santiago PacebeA political scientist and researcher from FLACSO Ecuador, there is no explanation for this phenomenon NoboaBut let’s test some hypotheses.

First, he promises El Comercio, which took place after the presidential debate, where he would have received the votes of the youth and many undecideds.

Another factor Basabhe notes is his family’s unlimited economic resources, the electoral clientele he can draw from, and the harvest of information his father has gathered over the decades to support his candidacy.

National Democratic Action Party Ecuadorian presidential candidate Daniel Noboa speaks after learning the first results of the presidential election.  (AFP).

National Democratic Action Party Ecuadorian presidential candidate Daniel Noboa speaks after learning the first results of the presidential election. (AFP).

/ Jimmy Negrete

What will happen in the second round between Noboa and Gonzalez?

After the first round, Noboa Now he needs to attract more support to defeat Luisa González, who has the challenge of cultivating Corrismo’s hard vote, which stands at 30%.

In this sense, Mauricio Salvador-Alarcón mentions in his message on Sunday, Daniel Nobowa He has already expressed his stance on alliances that would allow him to reach the presidency. “He doesn’t want to build them around anti-doctrinal or negative sentiment, but around sharing principles, positions, finding alternative solutions to people’s problems.”

“Daniel Noboa is more likely to take advantage of the young vote, which was obtained by Otto Sonnenholzner and John Topic. In addition, contrary to his statements, the anti-Corista votes will end up supporting him by people who vote for anyone other than the correísmo candidate”, Mauricio Salvador-Alarcón points out.

as Luisa GonzalezMauricio Salvador-Alarcón notes that the result obtained by her is very similar. Andres Arauz In the first round of 2021, and expect the second round campaign to be similar to the one against Arras Guillermo Lazo.

“Just like in that second round, I think a change in the message, a change in the way the candidates are acting, trying to capture the votes they lost in the first round, that’s a big challenge for Luisa. Gonzalez, given that In the first phase, Correísmo was responsible for conveying the message and image that Rafael was faithful and loyal to Correia.”, he notes.

Ernesto AncetaThe lawyer, defense expert and international relations analyst notes that Correísmo opted for a “one-round” strategy that appealed to the past and a job well done.

As a mainstream candidate, Correa appeals to a hardline electorate but fails to appeal to young people, closing the door to coalitions., which robs room for maneuver in the second round, where the majority of other candidates’ voters join Nobo. Is it too late to rethink a strategy? It’s hard to say for a country, but the feeling in Coristas’ own teams is that defeat is very possible”, highlights Anchieta to El Comercio.

Comment

Potentialities of Noboa and Gonzalez

Written by Luis Echeverria, an Ecuadorian sociologist and political analyst

cheater Daniel Nobowa We encounter a pattern Outsider A candidate in the second round because he was outside the scene of the debates and fierce conflicts that characterized the campaign intensified by the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio.

But there was one very important moment, that DiscussionFigure there Noboa Before entering into the discussion situation regarding insecurity, It followed an almost lateral line with a certain pragmatism, and tried to respond to the demands on the sceneBut they were shaded.

He proposed what needs to be done to move the country forward, especially addressing the young voters, the most important segment of the entire electorate.

He won the debate. From there a steady development begins, and other candidates begin to weaken.

That background and his image as a young entrant into politics will be an advantage when it comes to swaying the votes of other contenders. Getting approved in Ecuador is very difficult Voting because parties are not solid institutions capable of giving instructions to their militants.

A Luisa Gonzalez Yes, it will be very difficult for her to get new support because she obeys the directive from Belgium. Rafael Correa therefore, Flagged as Guardian of GorrismoRaising the status quo is further anchored in the supposed success of Korea’s administration.

He was not the bearer of a new discourse. He does not develop his own position in the debate, which is anchored in a nostalgic defense of what correísmo is. Faced with the demand to solve employment, security and economic problems, it will not allow it to accumulate more than it already has, it can grow a little, but I think it will not be enough to earn. .

Finally, we can say that in conceptual terms 2021 Arauz-Lasso fight reissuedThat conflict between neopopulism and the center-right.

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