The White House is excited to dodge the recessionary bullets heralded by economists in this 2024 election. For now, signs continue to show that the president's economics (christened bdenomics) refuses to budge. One of the signs was given by the employment data of the last few hours: 216,000 jobs were added last month, surpassing the 173,000 added in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% (the twenty-third consecutive month that unemployment has been below 4%).
Not only is employment firm, but incomes are also rising, which provides a bigger lever to boost consumption (the other leg to keep the economy from continuing recession). “Year-over-year growth in hourly earnings rose slightly, underscoring the resilience of the U.S. labor market,” notes Equitable Growth, a Washington think tank. Average hourly wages rose 4.1% from a year ago, up from 4% in November.
From Enemy to Unexpected Ally: Gasoline to Decline in 2024 and Key to Voter Mood
Thus, unemployment among minorities, who are key voters for the Democrats, is historically low: the unemployment rate for black workers was 5.2% (and falling) while the rate for Hispanics held steady near 5%.
However, despite low unemployment and falling inflation, polls show many Americans are still dissatisfied with the economy. That disconnect will be a problem in the 2024 election. A key factor is public irritation over prices, which are rising less than before but still rising. This means that inflation (overall) has been more or less declining continuously for a year and a half. But prices are still 17% higher than they were before the post-pandemic inflationary surge began.
Pollsters say the gap between the apparent health of the economy and the public's perception has never been so wide. In a November poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, three-quarters of respondents described the economy as “poor.” And two-thirds said their spending has increased.
The first response was Labor Secretary Julie Sue. When asked why so many Americans are dissatisfied with the economy, he said, “Part of the unfortunate truth is that we live in polarized times.”
2023 is a great year for American workers. pic.twitter.com/fjFbwGnUp5— President Biden (@POTUS) January 5, 2024
“Our economy created 2.7 million new jobs in 2023, while the unemployment rate remained below 4%. That's more jobs than in any year of the previous administration. It's a great year for American workers,” the president celebrated on social networks. A tweet with less traffic as measured on social networks.
Of course, the Democratic administration's influential “job boom,” according to most critics, is in response to the fact that people need two or three jobs to make the same amount of money they need to live. It is estimated that a typical American household would need to spend an additional $11,434 annually to maintain the same standard of living as they enjoyed in January 2021, just before inflation reached a 40-year peak.
“While the U.S. inflation rate has receded, the economy remains strong by many measures, and the unemployment rate is at its lowest level in two decades, these figures underscore the financial constraints many families continue to face,” he said. Members of the US Senate Joint Economic Committee last November.
The White House has disputed these calculations, saying the economy's progress is clear and strong. It's a little noticeable though. It's worth noting that there isn't a flood of positive outcomes in studies. Jared Bernstein, chairman of Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, had to come out to explain that remarkable contrast: “I think it will take some time for the economic dynamics to reach people's lives, and there is a deep enough awareness that it manifests itself. Some index of confidence and sentiment.”
The official is clinging to December's employment figures in hopes of a shift in public opinion about Biden's economy. “That's why the December figures are a positive flash in that sense. It's one month, so it's not a new trend, but the consumer confidence survey is up 10%; the university opinion poll “I think one of the things is when inflation comes down, it's again, very strong labor. associated with this cross-section of the market,” he explained in a comment to the NerdWallet portal.
According to Bernstein, wages have outpaced prices for 10 consecutive months for middle-wage workers. “A lot of economists and I think 90% of CEOs said a year ago we were in a recession. So the implementation of the president's agenda has led to a situation where things are going to be a lot better than people thought. And we think as time goes on, we're going to see more positive reports when it comes to consumer confidence.” The White House cheers.
