Drought can wreak havoc on the global economy in the long run: crop failure and disease resurgence

A few days later the UN issued a report warning Earth will experience unprecedented temperatures in the next five years Climate change and boyInternational researchers have now put a number to the disaster.

Los Economic consequences This phenomenon lasts for many years. According to science, in years when this happens, a strip of warm ocean water that stretches from South America to Asia called El Niño triggers far-reaching climate changes. A catastrophic flood, droughts concluded that CropsFalling Falling Fish stocks And a hike Tropical diseases.

What is El Nino?

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Natural cycle of warm and cold temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean It also includes its colder counterpart, La Niña. El Niño events alter weather patterns around the world, and in the United States typically result in a wetter, warmer winter on the West Coast and a milder hurricane season on the Atlantic Coast.

The researchers studied for two years Global economic activity In the decades after the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño episodes, a “persistent signature” of economic growth declines after five years was found. The global economy bled $4.1 and $5.7 trillion, respectively, in the half-decade after each of these events, mostly at the expense of poor countries in the tropics.

A loss of $84 billion

Researchers predict global economic losses of $84 trillion in the 21st century. Climate change will increase the frequency And the strength of El Niño, even if current commitments by world leaders to reduce carbon emissions are met. They calculate that an El Niño event forecast for 2023 alone could slow the global economy by $3 trillion between now and 2029.

Lead author Christopher Callahan, a doctoral student in geography at Dartmouth University, said the study addresses an ongoing debate about how quickly communities recover from major weather events like El Niño. “We can say with certainty that societies and economies will not recover on their own,” Callahan said in a statement, adding that his data suggest post-El Niño recessions can last up to 14 years.

Read more

Local News