Every decision taken and implemented has consequences and a country’s economy is highly sensitive to it. Here it is not only because of what has been done, but also because of the unfulfilled tasks. Ecuador suffered from cross-death, climate change and low oil production; are factors Guillermo Avellon, General Manager Central Bank of Ecuador (ECB), warned in its statements to the press a few weeks ago, now the ECB has recognized for the first time the impact of the politico-economic and social situation and has lowered its growth estimate for this year from 2.6% to 1.5%. This is indicated in the annual multi-year macroeconomic programming report of the real sector.
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Forecasts to 2023 are also considered International situation About: Lower global growth potential compared to 2022, especially in advanced economies; Lower levels of inflation compared to 2022, in energy and food prices; A continuation of tight monetary policy by central banks to control inflationary pressures and uncertainty related to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The document also shows that inflammation Ecuador’s interannual rate has shown a decrease in recent months, meaning it was 2.4% in August 2023, one of the lowest in the region, and the government has repeatedly highlighted this as an achievement of its administration. Although Food prices have increasedAs recorded in a previous Diario EXPRESO, lemons, onions, rice, eggs and some fruits are more expensive. It’s a scenario recognized when ECB analysis says that up to August this year, annual inflation for the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector averaged 5.6% and 6.4% at the end of the period.
The situation will not be better in 2024, estimated at 0.8% lower growth. The document explains that the results of the popular consultation of August 20, 2023, the termination of the operations of Block 43-ITD, consisting of Ishbingo, Tambogocha and Tibutini blocks, which define the low level of oil production in the medium term, is contemplated here. and the potential effects of the El Niño event on various sectors of the economy, which are mainly linked to the country’s non-oil exports.
The forecast for 2025 looks better with 2.4% growth; Despite a slowdown in 2026 and 2027, the economy is estimated to grow by 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively.
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The survey does not say anything about the insecurity situation in the country, especially in cities like Guayaquil, Durán and Esmeraldas; But it cannot be denied that insecurity also affects, because many businesses prefer to close rather than pay for the ‘vaccination’, and it also affects Ecuador’s economy.
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