Economic consequences boy They will persist years after the event and cost billions in lost income worldwide, a study published in Science today indicates.
In years when it occurs, El Niño triggers far-reaching climate changes that cause devastating floods, crop-destroying droughts, declining fish populations, and the rise of tropical diseases.
read more: UN warns of “unprecedented” rise in temperatures
With El Niño forecast to return this year, a team from Dartmouth College (USA) is among the first to estimate its long-term costs and indicate higher losses than estimated by previous research.
The team used models and analyzed global economic activity in the decades following the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. “Standard Signature” Slowdown in economic growth for more than five years.
Globally, global income losses totaled $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion, respectively, in the half decade each of these two events can be attributed to the effects of El Niño, mostly at the expense of poor countries in the tropics.
Researchers predict global economic losses could reach $84 trillion in the 21st century because climate change could increase the frequency and intensity of El Niño, even if current commitments to reduce carbon emissions are met, Dartmouth College said in a report.
Researchers estimate that this year’s El Niño event could cut the global economy by $3 trillion by 2029.
“We can say with certainty that societies and economies will not recover by themselves.” Christopher Callahan, who co-authored the study, said his data suggest post-El Niño recessions can last as long as 14 years, if not longer.
read more: Potatoes, maize and rice: Will the climate now benefit the country’s three main crops?
“In tropical regions and areas affected by El Niño, growth lags by at least five years” explained. “The total cost of these events is never fully calculated: you have to include all depressed growth in the future, not just when the event occurs.”
The study indicates that the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events resulted in US GDP being about 3% lower than in 1988 and 2003.
however, GDP of tropical coastal countries such as Peru and Indonesia It was less than 10% in the same year.
Global pattern of El Niño’s impact on climate and prosperity of different countries “Reflects unequal distribution of wealth and climate risk without addressing responsibility for climate change worldwide” said study author Justin Mankin from the same academic center.
El Nino added “It exacerbates the vast inequalities of climate change, disproportionately affecting the least resilient and prepared among us.”
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