“Uncertainty is worse than bad, because you can add a plan to bad news.” A phrase from a professional financial analyst defines the general confusion this week, which combines the peso, devaluation, the dollar’s stamp and surprise at prices in general.
Such a shakeup, what happened Deposit Savers in the financial system? The variable, which has a sensitive history in Argentina, is one of the thermometers to watch closely between now and October, consultants agree. Especially when politics begins to seriously talk about dollarization, a decisive figure like Sergio Massa, the economy minister and presidential candidate, warns that a “bonex plan” could be reissued with it. By public bonds ordered by Carlos Menem in 1989.
According to the panorama drawn by statistics and banking sources, until now, the behavior of private deposits in pesos and dollars in the financial system has shown more stability and calmness than the leadership in the campaign.
With the shock of the 2019 paso, foreign currency holders began to exit the system (a big cut to safe deposit boxes), when Alberto Fernandez surprised himself by presenting himself as a replacement for Mauricio Macri.
Since then, the Stock The initial US$30 billion has been stabilized at the current US$15 billion, a much lower amount. In the week leading up to this Paso, there was some withdrawal, but it rebounded after Sunday.
“In Stock That means that in banks, about 5 billion US dollars came from companies,” notes Ariel Barat, Director of the Economic Research Institute of the Cordoba Stock Exchange. Another allocation comes from public bodies, mostly from small savers.
The ‘boys’ are the thousands of people who rightly believe they are safer in the bank than hiding at home, with two thousand, three thousand or five thousand dollars in their accounts. Off A financial advisor.
Boss Stock This is compounded by another factor that has helped keep things quiet so far, despite the government’s risky juggling of reserves: a big difference with 2001 in regulatory matters.
“High reserve levels were established. Banks kept 90% of dollars in their treasuries or with the central bank (BCRA),” says Barratt.
And with pesos, fixed terms?
The latest data from the BCRA indicates that there are about 25,500 trillion pesos in private deposits in banks, of which slightly more than half, more than $12,700 trillion, are of fixed duration.
Busy post-PASO Monday, while the dollar Blue Soared and financial institutions followed suit, recording a 3% drop in constant terms, which analyst Salvador Vitelli reveals turned 180 degrees the next day: they increased to $ 600 billion pesos (5%), the biggest improvement of 2023.
Although data for the full week is not yet available, after the initial jitters, the rate hike ordered by the central government (118% nominal annual; if renewed monthly for 12 months, the effective annual rate is 208%. ) has managed to lure a significant number of savers, at least for the next 30 days.
“There was strong dollarization before the paso. Anyone who doesn’t do it at $500, it hurts to do it above $700. For now, that saver is continuing to race to inflation from time to time,” a private bank manager said this week. Other analysts were optimistic Blue It could moderate its fine streak in subsequent days, and it was done.
The high volatility of the economic and political environment, with another stress peak expected on October 22, necessitates focus on day-to-day operations.
“A person who has a lot of savings in dollars can wait 10 or 15 days to see what happens. If there is a part in the peso, it can go for a fixed period of 30 days”, suggests analyst and consultant Aníbal Casas Arregui.
“Longer term, there are interesting dollar-denominated investments such as sovereign or provincial bonds that could appreciate in value in 2024,” he adds.
Mass production deserves a separate line for digital wallets and banks: a paid account allows money to be viewed with high yield.
Although they haven’t reached inflation, they moderate it a lot, and the rate war between brands (Mercado Pago, Naranja X, Ualá, Personal Pay, etc.) is already over 90% per year.
“Account growth is exponential,” they reveal from one of these fintech Leaders. Another lifeline that millions of savers are trying to stay afloat in this sea of inflation.