Former Economy Minister, Hernan LagunzaHe warned that he sensed a growing intransigence in government over exchange rate policy: “Not so much because of exchange rate lag, but because of stability”. He added that he did not foresee a V-shaped recovery.I am not so optimistic because the other thing (by the previous government) was a fantasy”. During an interview with Jose Del Rio Business community With LN+, he warned that the government was too short-term and “very dangerous”.
After showing the Economy Minister’s speech live, Luis CaputoHe considered the economic recovery: “I see more of a tubular recovery,” he said. Pro economist estimates that a recovery is yet to be felt in the government’s global economic indicators despite the correction in inflation and slowdown. He assessed that he does not currently believe that the investments that could bring the economy into action will come. “Minister should sell the prospect, but I am not so optimistic about the V-shaped reboundHe explained.
“The drivers for reactivating consumption and investment may not be sufficient. Real wages are 20% lower than they were six months ago. The other was fantasy. It hasn’t started to recover yet, and if it does start to recover because the equilibrium rate hits inflation at some point, it won’t recover in two months. It will be in the form of a tube and will have a Persian recovery,” he said.
To that end, he added: “I don’t know that another great engine investment has that much horsepower. I was reading Domingo Cavallo about stocks these days, and Until it dissipates, I wonder what port of arrival?, the government has a broad message between dollarization and currency competition. I don’t think there will be an investment boom until interest rates and exchange rates come down, costs, inputs, wages and energy etc. Not with the Basic Law or RIGI. First the road should be built”.
With this in mind, he focused on the need to fix the exchange rate and raise the stake. “I sense some growing stubbornness on the part of the government, and I fear that it will get caught up in that logic, it worked up to day 180, but didn’t pick up to day 360. Not because of the amount of transfer delay, which seems to me initially, but because of its consistency. “This story of the dollar at 2 percent and prices at 5 percent is a limited story, not very sustainable,” he analyzed.
He emphasized that the majority of people in the society still trust the government, but this has an expiry date. “Society is giving unprecedented patience to this government. He came to the last election fed up with the current state with inflation and caste concessions etc. For this reason, Miley won with three words: anti-caste, dollarization and chainsaw,” he analyzed.
“Despite the drastic adjustment these months, people are still giving, giving, more time, Because for the first time in years, he knew he couldn’t go on like this. During this first phase and six months, the government, with proper diagnosis, bravery and expertise, averted a disaster. It was a very delicate operation. There is a risk of high inflation, problems with deposits and inflation of 200% annually,” he said.
He felt that the government “could make it look like a good decision”. “Six months ago it was untenable. These are the first six months of lights. There are also shadows associated with recession and the quality of employment. What he did was lift the veil. An artificial situation arose. The curtain was drawn and we became poorer than we thought” he added.
“That optimism is supported by an unprecedented government proposal, but it needs to be anchored in some recovery from that recession. The next 180 days will depend on the impatience rate recovery“, he pointed out.
On the other hand, he questioned the governor of the province of Buenos Aires. Axel Kisyloff, who positioned himself in the opposition as “opposed” to Millay and Caputo’s economic activities. “He’s intellectually honest, but he’s wrong,” Lacunza said.
Later, Lacunza slipped an unusual criticism towards Luis Caputo. “It is a thankless task for an economic minister. “In situations of stress or scarcity, the difficulties of managing undesirable measures such as raising rates, as Caputo does, should be explained more realistically,” the former economy minister of the province of Buenos Aires studied during his governorship of Buenos Aires. Maria Eugenia Vidal.
He stressed that “the support of the President is essential” to use portfolio mandate measures, but he asked: “I don’t know if being a rockstar helps the minister? That figure should be as consistent and sensible as possible. We are at B as a result of years of abuses in economic policy, and we are not here to become champions of the Champions League, we should not go to C. We can reintegrate into the world with a lasting plan. “The more prudence and prudence, the better.”
However, he pointed out that he should continue on that track with the plan undertaken by the Treasury officer. “The basic plan to address the fiscal imbalance emergency is no machine, exchange rate normalization and credit, it’s a one-year plan, which sounds good to me. But they should know that the keys that seemed hot in summer are not the same for cold winters. You need to know how to optimize the plan and not be ambitious with short-term goals such as low monthly inflation. With good news. Inflation is more or less 4-5-6 in June, what we should not do is delay the dollar or rates, because a jump – in inflation – is dangerous.
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