Premature Depreciation and Economy Short Path Govt

President Javier Milei has once again shown himself to be more comfortable abroad as a preacher of independence principles than as a state administrator, without complexes and to the annoyance of foreigners and many of his own. Administrative errors are evident. In person it is obvious. He was not interested in politics; When the conversation returns there, the President interrupts the conversation and sends him to speak to his sister Karina.

This was the origin of one of the main conflicts, although not the only one, that managed to oust Nicolas Boss from the government. Miley’s absence from the executive branch meeting saw the former commander-in-chief advance on almost the entire board of state, except for economic and communications policy. “Nicolas felt that all areas that were not well defined were his territory, and friction began; except for Toto Caputo, the ministers were of the opinion that they were not the owners of their ministries,” recalled one early libertarian. The concentration of functions, in addition to friction, caused apparent inaction. Like Miley, teamwork is not Bose’s strong suit.

Among the sea of ​​eccentricities characteristic of this government, here was another. The Bosse took positions of power where its own troops were not present. He was gathering people in a place Hiding In the frenzy after the October election, strongly aided by Martin Mastuval, Senior Partner From the consulting firm McKinsey & Co, he was later given an office in Government House, albeit without a formal position. This was to help him in the process of privatizing public enterprises. Bosse did not answer what role Mastu played when he went to Congress to present his first and only executive report.. For this omission, both were condemned by the Foundation for Peace and Climate Change, who are regulars in the courts, and the case fell to Judge Ariel Lijo, nominated by the ruling party to join the court.

The collapse of the chiefs of staff within six months of assuming government would be a highly relevant political event; If that chief were the staff, the significance was even deeper. He assembled a group of technocrats and lawyers who drafted the first version of the Basic Law, selected candidates to join the government, and persuaded businessmen to fund campaigns.

“The position was too big for Bose; the only exaggerations of the election speech were the exaggerations he repeated about Miley, but cold and unkind. That scared many. Gathering reports is not the same as governing,” the libertarian source recalled. It doesn’t seem like a group of friends who make different mistakes every day and try to fix them by firing people. It’s the other way around: now they are less and more functional,” he laments.

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Whether or not there are more changes will be determined by the triangle of Miley, her sister Karina and Santiago Caputo. Toto’s emerging son-in-law is already targeting several positions left orphaned after the former commander-in-chief’s defection. The challenge is that summation of power does not make it a new possession. They say he would have gained from his experience as an adviser to Eduardo “Vado” de Pedro’s failed presidential campaign.

There is no guarantee that Bose’s firing will be the end of the political uproar. “The Negotiation Personality of the Broncos [Guillermo, el nuevo jefe de Gabinete] “Maybe it clashes with Miley’s economic approach, and it’s a government that is all about economics,” says a person who knows them and has been in touch with both.

Federico Sternsnegger’s entry into the ministerial cast raises doubts because of his stubborn style and his damaged relationship with the head of the Treasury Palace. In the December 28, 2017 episode of the famous 28-D, one of the actors, Marcos Pena and Nicolas Dujovene, together with Luis Caputo, announced a revision of the inflation targets set by Sternsnaker in 2018. Later, Toto – then finance minister – replaced him as head of the central bank, and in one of his first statements he promised to make the institution’s balance sheet “look very good”.

But even if he wasn’t involved in internal affairs, Sternsnegger was already creating — by regulating the economy — noise with unions, prepaid companies, the airline industry and river cabotage. The ultimate stake in the management or fate of some public companies promises a string of conflicts.

Bose’s departure, unexpected gas cuts to factories and CNG stations, and a corruption scandal involving non-delivery of food to soup kitchens hit Human Capital Minister Sandra Petovello, overshadowing labor progress on the Basic Law. Senate and will be debated in the Senate next week. Francos’ political expertise is attributed to moderate success by libertarians on social networks. “We were in shock for 30 days; “With him or not, the result would have been the same,” says a senator from the dialogue opposition, who is far from sharing the officials’ joy. “It does not mean that we already have the law; You should always watch the game. The interests of the Patagonian senators collide with those in the north and the internal affairs of the UCR also have an impact,” he warns.

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Mileage is 10,000 kilometers in prime hours from December 10. In America, the president continued to fill a photo album of the number one companies leading the digital economy around the world. They are unethical trips that have drawn criticism from some, but the Ministry of External Affairs defends them.

“Presidential diplomacy has always existed. Menem [por el expresidente Carlos] “I played golf with George Bush Sr.,” they draw comparisons when asked nation. “Miley is like that, a disruptor in everything, including his international agenda. We want it to be seen with the businessmen, not with Maduro [Nicolás, el presidente de Venezuela]As the previous government did,” they note in the portfolio headed by Diana Mondino, where they promise that the president does not travel to attract investments, but to know “where the world is going.” To create an attractive business environment, they feel that the Basic Law’s Big Investment Promotion Regime (RIGI), modernization of double taxation agreements with other countries, trade promotion and investment protection agreements are very important.

But not all criticism of Millay for administrative apathy comes from Kirchnerism or the left. “We cannot allow donkeys to laugh at K’s poor management. “Administration is donkey’s hours in the chair and focusing on your head issues,” says another non-independent senator who is on good terms with the government. “Some of the senators he left in charge of the negotiations did not understand politics. “You can play football and be stupid, but you can catch the ball with your hand without knowing the rules of the game,” he explains. This metaphor can be extended to detail the crisis in human capital and the dismissal of former Children, Adolescents and Families Secretary Pablo de la Torre condemned by the government.

“The Peronists are going to mess everything up and take the government to a complicated place,” he warns. “They have a historical partner, and that’s over time. If your administration doesn’t start, people will want someone to do things and solve things, even if they’re guilty. The Peronists were not redeemed in the courts, but by the incompetence of those who came after them,” he warns.

At the macro level, some analysts believe that the main achievements of the Caputo program — low inflation, fiscal and fiscal surpluses, and a stable dollar — may find limits to their progress. Others think that because of depressed consumption and insufficient investment, these conditions can be taken for granted, and people will direct their concerns to other problems and demand other solutions.

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Consulting firm Moiguer’s June Social Humor report, titled “The Gap Between Macro and Micro,” was accessed. nation. Falling purchasing power and labor instability are beginning to set the agenda. When respondents were asked how the general economic situation would develop during a Miley government, 43% answered better and 38% answered worse, while about inflation 41% answered better and 39% answered worse. But when the questions were directed towards microeconomics, the answers turned sharply upside down. When asked about the stability of their job situation, 52% predicted it would be worse, 25% predicted it would be better; 52% expect to have poor purchasing power, and 25% estimate that they will have excellent purchasing power. 37% of those surveyed said they fear losing their job in the next 6 months, a percentage that rises to 51% among the lower class. All in the context of people starting to run restlessly.

“How long can we wait for Mili’s economic plan to start yielding positive results?” When asked, 46% said they could not wait and the situation had to start improving; 18% said they could wait about 3 to 6 months and 26% answered “a year or more”. The work also shows that people expect relief measures to be announced. However, the report makes it clear that half are optimistic that the economy will improve over the next 12 months.

Last weekend, on his blog, Domingo Cavallo, one of the few economists Milei respects, asked to take care of the micro and warned that inflation could rise again. “Microeconomics will be an essential ingredient so that the work of the new Chief Executive can bear fruit in terms of consensus with governors and maintenance of social peace,” he warned. His recipe: eliminate stocks to prevent companies from operating.

Will the government listen to him? Traders visiting official offices have long been left with the same message: “We’ll fix your macro, you do the rest.” It is the result of a view that maintains that with organized accounts and low inflation, everything else will fall into place. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking and if the economy does not recover, it will be difficult to cover up management errors.

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