The global economic slowdown, what is the impact on Peru? | International | GDP | Peruvian Economy | economy

World Economy, BCRP, RI March 2024

External factors play an important role in the economic development of the country. For example, exports to China have accelerated despite the fact that this Asian economy has been sluggish for many years. According to data from ComexPerú, exports to that economy fell by 5.2% in 2021, but increased by 6% in 2022 and 14.4% in 2023.

Here one factor enters: the cost of the raw materials we export is important. The composition of the Peruvian export basket is largely tied to copper and gold, making it vulnerable to a decline in global demand for these. materials.

The slowdown in the US economy is also under scrutiny. “Although the impact will be less than that of China, the decline in US demand for Peruvian products will have a negative impact on the country's growth”considers Esteban Tamayo is Citi Research Senior Economist for Colombia, Peru, Central America and the Caribbean.

In that sense, Tamayo believes that there is a very strong global recession, which could be considered a hidden risk for Peru, but there are factors that mitigate this shock, such as price prospects. materials”, Indica

materials

The channel of exchange that has the greatest impact on the economy comes from prices materials Because they account for 50% of total exports. Also, it has an impact on both the external accounts and the financial sector (tax revenue).

Luis Miguel Castilla, former Minister of Economy and Finance comments that “In general, when we analyze Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework (MMM)“We realize that the collection is very sensitive to the price of copper or the price of oil, given the level of elasticity of financial prices depending on certain variables.”.

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For example, for every 10% increase in the price of copper, it affects revenue by 0.1 to 0.2 of GDP. “Copper prices today are higher than expected Mmm. The same thing happens with gold, which has the same elasticity.details.

This suggests that the GDP performance of major trading partners is not the only factor taken into account to assess the risks facing Peru this year. In fact, internationally, how interest rates develop in the United States affects more than the amount of non-primary goods or services we export to that country.

Favorable copper prices (around USD 3.85/lb), despite lower growth in the US and China, are one of the factors keeping Peru on an optimistic path for the future, according to a CreditCorp report. This year, a slightly upward projection is maintained. The same will happen in gold with the price forecast for 2024 raised from USD/oz. 1,950 average, unlike last year's December estimate (USD/oz. 2,067).

“The whole process of energy transfer through electric mobility affects the demand for metals, especially copper. There are factors other than Chinese growth that explain why copper is at such a high level, and I think that's a fact that will help us and maintain the upward projection.”comments Castilla.

And Commodity Oil is something we should be watching closely as it rose to US$88.95/barrel earlier this month, representing a 20% year-over-year increase. “As an oil importing country, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may contribute to increased inflation and changes in interest rates.comments.

Contingencies

In the last financial crisis of 2008, opening negotiations with China, market diversification partially supported Peru. This year, seeing new markets like India and countries in the region like the recently opened Argentine economy will ease international turbulence. In addition, the macroeconomic “armor” that BCRP.

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“We have a wide range of trading partners, but the best way to mitigate recessions and external crises, exchange rates or capital outflows is the BCRP, which accounts for almost one-third. PPI In Net International Reserves”, Comments Castilla. This allows the public sector and companies issuing bonds to obtain cheaper investment grades.

About the author

MARIANA RUIZ MARIANO

Assistant Professor of Economics. Graduate in Economics (Isaan), with Masters in Political Science and International Relations (PUCP). I have been analyzing the national situation and economy for seven years.

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