:quality(85)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/EJB764NNC5DPVP7XGH5Q6JKNY4.jpg "The Peruvian economy is in its worst crisis since 1990: three consecutive quarters of decline")
The The Peruvian Economy faced its fifth consecutive monthly contraction, with It was down 1.29% in SeptemberAccording to data from National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI). The decline ranks September as the second-worst month of the year, surpassing only the 1.43% drop recorded in May.
Therefore, Peru’s GDP situation is preparing for 2023 with very low growth. These three quarters are considered the longest by analysts Crisis in the country.
Former minister Waldo Mendoza gave a very accurate reflection DepressionDuring his participation during the first day of the Annual Executive Conference (CADE 2023), together with Roxana Barrantes, senior professor of the PUCP and researcher of the IEP, and Diego Masera, director of the Peruvian Institute of Economics, in the group “Opportunities and measures that the government can promote to restore the growth of the economy”.
“In September we should have three consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, which has not happened since the Fujishock of 1990. This is the longest recession in the last three decades,” said Mendoza, who was in charge of the economic portfolio. In the government of Francisco Sagasti.
However, what is more remarkable is that Mendoza said that the recession did not start this year and rejected such reasons. El Nino phenomenon And this Social protests Main reasons against the government of Dina Boluarte.
The most common explanation when talking about the recession in Peru in 2023 is to explain the effects of weather events that affected the production of various sectors and the social protests against Tina Polwart. Sectors like tourism.
however, Waldo Mendoza, made a different diagnosis. “The most common version is to point (as reasons). Coastal El Niño phenomenon and violence in the South, but according to the Central Reserve Bank’s seasonally adjusted GDP data, a recession that began late last year, (in) no Beach baby And no communal violence,” he added while participating in CADE 2023.
What is the reason for that? Depression So? Mendoza describes the cooling of the economy as natural. “During the pandemic, both fiscal and monetary policy were massively expansionary. In 2019 and 2020, we used the most expansive macroeconomic policy in modern history,” he explains.
Thus, principles Ministry of Economy and Finance And this Central Reserve Bank Contraction in 2019 and 2020 (Fiscal, MEF; and Monetary, PCR) to 7.75%. A huge increase,” explains Mendoza, a former director PCR.
But this is not the first time that part of the current recession has been explained with BCR’s monetary policy. Julio Velarde as president. Infobae Peru Spoke with Jorge Luis Ojeda, professor of finance at UPC. Reference interest rate Established to fight inflation.
“A large part of the cooling of the economy is due to these Higher interest rates. The inflammation Not already rising, so the central bank, logically, backs away from this offer to raise or lower rates. (…) As credit became more expensive, projects began to become more complex at the commercial and personal level, because financing was much more expensive. That is why we felt the slowdown process in the previous quarters,” Ojeda explained.
In a very critical tone, the former Economy Minister at the time, Curt Burneau, also spoke about Julio Velarte’s monetary policy at BCR. “One thing that catches my attention is the president Central Reserve Bank Until recently, monetary policy, dedicated to raising interest rates and making debt more expensive, and thus less consumption and investment, spoke of growth projections. PPI and economic activity in the short term,” he said RPP.
