The elite in Davos see nothing mundane in the global economy by 2024

Bloomberg – At the final Davos forum of the year, participants noted The world reaches an uneasy balance In a soft economic environment, overshadowed by persistent geopolitical risks.

Despite a backdrop of wars and populism, investors were encouraged by forecasts of a slowdown in inflation and a rebound in global trade, they said. Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, and other participants at the closing ceremony of the World Economic Forum.

“Normalization, we're starting to notice,” Lagarde announced to an audience gathered in the Swiss tourist town, before adding an important nuance. “We're not back to normal,” he added.

Six panelists were tasked with summarizing the situation in Davos a week later, in which participants remained optimistic about global forecasts, stressing that a strong recession could be avoided despite unprecedented tightening of monetary policy to control inflation.

SometimesThat hope has been undermined by the threat of geopolitics, The threat of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions in the Red Sea. success Donald Trump In Iowa on Monday, which put him on the path to the Republican nomination, it was met with caution by many attendees.

“There's a lot of uncertainty… and, of course, all the elections we're seeing around the world and what that could bring,” lamented the director-general of the World Trade Organization. Ngozi Okonjo-Iwealto do He shares Lagarde's view that the world may be “moving towards normality” but at the same time it is definitely “not normal”.

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C.  Legard

The A chance for a second presidency The Trump-led panel was frequently mentioned during the debate Lacua of France From Bloomberg Television. Lagarde took a positive stance, saying “the best defense is offensive” and pushing to strengthen Europe by creating a “genuine single market”. German Finance Minister Christian LindnerWas very cautious.

“We talk a lot about Donald Trump in Europe,” he said. “Doing our homework is the best preparation for a possible second term for Donald Trump, and that includes our ability to protect ourselves.”

to David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group co-founder and co-chairman said that whoever wins the November election, the truth is, America faces a political impasseWith all the risks it implies to the rest of the world.

“What all the candidates say about what's going to happen in the future is almost never true, because they can't do what they say they're going to do,” said Rubenstein, who hosts a show. on Bloomberg Television.

One of the most frequently expressed concerns of the week tax environment In America. President of Singapore Dharman Shanmugaratnam, He probably meant it when he said that “the most important and neglected area of ​​public policy is tax reform.”

Rubenstein noted the challenges in the United States.

“If we don't resolve this, something will happen to the dollar,” he said. “If the US can't enforce its tax code, at some point people will do what they did to the pound sterling and the Dutch guilder years ago.”

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Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank Chief Financial Officer A.G. James von MoltkeHe described a “pinch moment” due to him Surprise in the resilience of economies and financial marketsWhile a professor at Harvard University, Ken Rogoff, “The geopolitical situation is something I have never seen in my career,” he worried.

Lindner chose a more positive approach. He described his native country as “a tired man after a few nights”, in contrast to the “sick man” label that had recently been placed on him again. He was also more optimistic about the global economy.

“This is a new normal and we have to be prepared for it,” he said. “2023 has given me hope.”

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